UK Economics Update Three lockdowns, two recessions, one big recovery The third lockdown to contain COVID-19 means that the economy will start the year in recession and the recovery will be delayed again. Even so, by expecting the economy to regain its pre-crisis level... 5th January 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit deal removes one potential brake on the recovery Today’s news that a UK-EU Brexit deal will soon be announced may not boost the financial markets by much more than it already has. But a decent economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in the second... 24th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit deal removes one potential brake on the recovery Today’s news that a UK-EU Brexit deal will soon be announced may not boost the financial markets by much more than it already has. But a decent economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in the second... 24th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Severe COVID-19 restrictions raise chance of double-dip The new Tier 4 COVID-19 restrictions, which closely resemble November’s lockdown, raise the chances that the economy stagnates, if not contracts, in the first three months of 2021. If the economy is... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Severe COVID-19 restrictions raise chance of double-dip The new Tier 4 COVID-19 restrictions, which closely resemble November’s lockdown, raise the chances that the economy stagnates, if not contracts, in the first three months of 2021. If the economy is... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will be asking Santa for a Brexit deal The positive news on vaccines meant that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t feel the need to loosen policy any further at its December meeting today. And, as long as there is a Brexit deal by... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC will be asking Santa for a Brexit deal The positive news on vaccines meant that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) didn’t feel the need to loosen policy any further at its December meeting today. And, as long as there is a Brexit deal by... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Five often missed points on Brexit Brexit is going to get a lot of airtime over the next few hours, days and weeks, especially once the outcome of the call between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen later this afternoon is made... 7th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Five often missed points on Brexit Brexit is going to get a lot of airtime over the next few hours, days and weeks, especially once the outcome of the call between Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen later this afternoon is made... 7th December 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Vaccines inject optimism into our forecasts COVID-19 vaccines are a gamechanger for our economic forecasts and mean that we now think that by the middle of the decade the economy won’t be much smaller than if the COVID-19 crisis had never... 27th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Vaccines inject optimism into our forecasts COVID-19 vaccines are a gamechanger for our economic forecasts and mean that we now think that by the middle of the decade the economy won’t be much smaller than if the COVID-19 crisis had never... 27th November 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal outlook isn’t as bad as it looks The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was right to say today that now is not the time to tighten fiscal policy. But given the OBR’s downbeat forecasts, the biggest danger is that the government is lured into... 25th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update How much slack is there in the labour market? Our measures of labour market slack suggest that the official unemployment rate is significantly understating how much spare capacity there is at the moment and will probably continue to do so for a... 16th November 2020 · 3 mins read