UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2025) The stagnation in real GDP in July shows that the economy is still struggling to gain decent momentum in the face of the drag from previous hikes in taxes and possible further tax rises to come in the... 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Halifax House Prices (Jul./Aug. 2025) The rises in retail sales volumes in July and the Halifax measure of house prices in August suggest the economy maintained some decent momentum early in Q3. The risk is talk of tax rises ahead of the... 5th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jul. 2025) July’s money and lending data show that interest rate cuts are yet to significantly boost economic activity and that the prospect of tax hikes in the Autumn Budget may be making households a bit more... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Aug. 2025) The rises in August’s composite activity PMI and services output prices balances marginally increase the chances that the Bank of England will leave interest rates on hold at 4.00% in November. 21st August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jul. 2025) July’s undershoot in government borrowing continued the decent start to the fiscal year and leaves borrowing broadly in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s 2025/26 fiscal year forecast of... 21st August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) While the rise in CPI inflation from 3.6% in June to 3.8% (consensus and Capital Economics forecast 3.7%) will fuel speculation that further interest rate cuts are off the agenda this year, the Bank... 20th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jun. & Q2 2025) The unexpectedly strong 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in June (consensus and CE forecast 0.1%) and 0.3% q/q gain in Q2 are more likely to be due to a temporary burst of growth rather than a sign of a... 14th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jun./Jul. 2025) The further falls in payroll employment and job vacancies suggest that the labour market is still cooling, albeit only gradually. But with wage growth excluding bonuses stuck at 5.0%, on balance today... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (7th Aug. 2025) Although the Bank of England cut interest rates today by 25 basis points (bps), from 4.25% to 4.00%, it showed some signs that it may cut rates slower and/or not as far as our forecast of a decline to... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2025) June’s money and lending figures support wider evidence that the deteriorating jobs market has led to a rise in consumer caution as households have become a bit more cautious about spending. This... 29th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2025) The disappointingly small rebound in retail sales in June supports our view that the economy grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q2 and means that the risks to our forecast for consumer spending to grow by 1.4%... 25th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jul. 2025) July’s flash PMIs paint a picture of the economy struggling to recover from a spring lull, a labour market that is still weakening and price pressures that are continuing to ease. This should reassure... 24th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jun. 2025) Despite the £3.6bn overshoot in June, public borrowing is still in line with the OBR’s forecasts for the first three months of the 2025/26 fiscal year. But things will probably get worse for the... 22nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (May/Jun. 2025) The fallout in the labour market from the hikes in National Insurance Contributions and the minimum wage is not as big as previously thought. Even so, as payroll employment is falling and wage growth... 17th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.4% in May to a 17-month high of 3.6% in June (consensus & BoE forecast 3.4%, CE 3.3%) may not prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates by 25... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (May 2025) The hangover from the burst of activity in Q1 ahead of rises in US tariffs and UK stamp charges continued in May with GDP falling by 0.1% m/m. This leaves GDP on track to rise by just 0.1% q/q in Q2... 11th July 2025 · 3 mins read
