UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March (BoE and consensus 3.1%, CE 3.0%) and drop in the core rate from 4.5% to 4.2% (consensus and CE 4.1%) raises the... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Feb. 2024) The sharp fall in employment and the jump in the unemployment rate in February suggest that wage growth will continue to slow even though the pace of decline appears to have eased. As long as that’s... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Bernanke Review of BoE Forecasting (Apr. 2024) Our initial impression of the changes to the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications recommended by Ben Bernanke is that they would go a long way to helping the Bank generate more accurate... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Feb. 2024) The 0.1% m/m rise in GDP in February (consensus and CE +0.1%) and the upward revision to the gain in January from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% m/m all-but confirms the recession ended in Q4. But while we expect a... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Feb. 2024) February’s money and credit figures show the dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year boosted mortgage approvals to a 17-month high. This is unlikely to continue in the near term. But if we’re... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2023 Final) The final Q4 2023 GDP release confirmed that the UK economy was in the mildest of mild technical recessions at the end of last year. But timely indicators suggest the economy probably exited recession... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Feb. 2024) Unchanged retail sales volumes in February (CE forecast 0.0% m/m, consensus -0.4% m/m), as shoppers largely shrugged off the unusually wet weather, provided further evidence that a rebound in retail... 22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (21st Mar. 2024) The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fifth time in a row and, despite no MPC members no longer voting to raise interest rates, it retained its relatively... 21st March 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Mar. 2024) While the composite activity PMI fell a touch in March, it still suggest that the UK economy has probably moved out of recession. This implies there is upside risk to our 2024 GDP growth forecast of 0... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Feb. 2024) February’s disappointing public finances figures suggest that the OBR’s new 2023/24 borrowing forecast published in March’s Budget already looks too optimistic. But this may not prevent the government... 21st March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The second bigger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in as many months, from 4.0% in January to 3.4% in February probably won’t make the Bank of England sound any more dovish when it leaves interest... 20th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jan. 2024) The news that the economy expanded by 0.2% m/m in January (consensus and CE forecast 0.2% m/m) suggests the UK economy may already have moved out of recession and implies there is some upside to our... 13th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jan. 2024) The easing in wage growth in January is probably still a bit too slow for the Bank of England’s liking. But there are encouraging signs that a more marked slowdown is just around the corner, which... 12th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Spring Budget 2024 The net fiscal giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may at the margin help lift the economy out of its mild recession before an election later this year. But a big tightening in... 6th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Credit (Jan. 2024) January’s money and credit figures suggest the drag on consumer spending and the housing market from higher interest rates is easing, which suggests an economic recovery, at least in some sectors, has... 29th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb. 2024) The small rise in the composite activity PMI, from 52.9 in January to 53.3 in February (CE forecast 53.0, consensus 52.9), suggests that the mildest of mild recessions at the end of 2023 may soon be... 22nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
