Europe Commercial Property Update Property returns to revive over the longer term The current economic downturn will mean that short-to-medium term property performance is under-par. But over a longer horizon, we expect real estate returns to reassert their traditional position... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is the worst behind us? This week’s data contained encouraging signs that inflationary pressures are fading, and the risks to our view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.5% this year now lie to the downside. The January MSCI data... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Explaining the surge in yields The rise in yields in the final quarter of last year was larger than that seen at the start of the GFC. While the magnitude of the rise can be explained by the jump in risk-free interest rates, the... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update REIT pricing points to further fall in capital values Movements in REIT pricing provide a good indication of where property capital values are heading. And the latest data are consistent with our expectation that all-property values will see a peak-to... 18th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property faces a tough year After a stellar first six months, rising interest rates and a slowing economy brought commercial property returns crashing down in the second half of 2022. All-property total returns are therefore set... 10th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update The key battlegrounds for cutting property emissions A large part of the real estate sector’s carbon footprint is related to electricity production and so will shrink over time as the use of renewables continues to expand. The biggest challenges to... 9th January 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update The World in 2023: Property prices to plunge Property markets rebounded strongly after 2020, in part boosted by favourable structural shifts brought on by the pandemic. But they have hit the buffers in recent months. And fortunes are likely to... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Regional office market rents to outperform London Office rental growth in London and RoUK was similar in the third quarter. But as the recession takes hold London firms will have a greater incentive, and opportunity, to make savings from the shift to... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Lending to property will soon go into reverse The rise in net lending to real estate over the past couple of months may reflect some investors looking to buy commercial property assets at discounted prices. But a repeat of the mid-2000s, when... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Retail property no longer an outlier The cost-of-living crisis will have an impact on UK high streets for much of the next year. That will not be helpful for retail property rents, although given they are starting from a low base, we... 18th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rising vacancy will cut London office rents Even as Central London office vacancy rates rose to a 12-year peak in Q3, annual rental growth ticked-up to three-year high. That marks a reversal from the situation prior to COVID-19, when a tight... 15th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Global recession seals real estate downturn In line with changes in our global economic view, we have made significant downgrades to our commercial real estate forecasts for the next couple of years. As a result, we now expect a much bigger... 8th November 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial set to underperform Industrial demand is relatively well-placed to weather the upcoming recession. Vacancy is low going into the downturn and the gradual shift to online shopping will continue. It should therefore be the... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Will property be a problem again? The UK property market has a long history of either causing or worsening recessions. But that history has taught both banks and regulators a lesson. So while higher debt payments, falling property... 19th October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Offices see biggest fall in our rental downgrade With interest rates now higher, we have made downgrades to our forecast for UK GDP growth. We expect that this will bring a sharper deceleration in rental growth at the all-property level, with falls... 17th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read