UK Commercial Property Update Will the investment recovery be delayed? After a positive end to 2023 commercial property investment has since lost momentum, not helped by a rebound in interest rates. But we still think interest rates will fall back this year and, while... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update The economic outlook and industrial rents The drivers of industrial rental growth were turned on their head during the pandemic, but we expect the pre-COVID-19 relationships will soon be reestablished. That points to consumer spending as an... 26th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Online share developments not all bad news The online share of retail sales is still above its pre-pandemic trend, but a closer look suggests that is perhaps not as bad for the retail sector as it looks. For example, the share of online... 13th March 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update IPF Consensus Forecasts (Mar. 24.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey shows that forecasters have upwardly revised their 2024 expectations, which are now more in line with our view. Stronger rental growth help drive that improvement and... 8th March 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Green premium helps drive refurbishment boom The latest crane survey reported the highest volume of London office starts on record. In part that reflects a refurbishment boom as developers retrofit their buildings to meet MEES standards and... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update The Times: Why 99 per cent mortgages will make the housing crisis worse A version of this report was originally published as an opinion piece in The Times on 28th February 2024. 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Answering questions from our debt distress Drop-In This week we held a Drop-In on commercial property distress across the US, UK and Europe. Clients can access a recording here and find related analysis on our dedicated landing page. This Update... 16th February 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will commercial property distress spread to the UK? Distress in the US commercial property market is once again in the news, but the risk of that spreading to the UK is low. The rise in aggregate loan-to-value ratios to date looks manageable and with... 6th February 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4 2023) Having deteriorated for the best part of 2023, sentiment over all-property occupier demand and rents improved in Q4. However, the balances remain negative, pointing to subdued demand and rental growth... 25th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are capital values close to bottoming out? Prices of commercial real estate equities suggest capital values will see a strong recovery in the first few months of 2024. But with no prospect of yield compression and rental growth set to slow, we... 19th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2023) The latest Credit Conditions Survey showed a rise in the availability of mortgage credit in Q4 as financial market interest rates fell, but demand for mortgages slipped as mortgage rates took time to... 18th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Can regional industrial rents outperform? In contrast to most of the past 20 years, RoUK industrial rental growth has almost matched the South East over the past couple of quarters. But that is unlikely to last. The boost to demand for big... 11th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK commercial property returns to stabilise, if not shine Stubbornly high inflation pushed risk-free rates, and yields, somewhat higher than we had anticipated by the end of 2023. By contrast, rental growth proved surprisingly resilient even as the economy... 5th January 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Slower economic recovery is a risk for retail rents High interest rates have taken longer to percolate through the economy than we expected, but we now think consumer spending will contract over the next six months. That poses a risk to our retail rent... 20th December 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Takeaways from our Property in 2024 roundtables This week, we held a series of property roundtable discussions with clients in our London office as part of our World in 2024 series. In this Update, we outline our thoughts on the most interesting... 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Hybrid working to boost Central London office demand Hybrid working is gradually allowing firms to cut back on the amount of office space they require, but it also means they need to think more about the attractiveness of their offices to support... 11th December 2023 · 3 mins read
