Trump's tariffs: Why China's economy might withstand the shock better than expected
Could new US tariffs under Trump disrupt China's economy, or will it withstand the pressure better than expected?
Large US tariffs would hurt China’s export sector but less than many suppose. We estimate that the direct impact of even a 60% US tariff on goods from China would be well under 1% of China’s GDP.
The Trump transition is being keenly watched from Beijing, where policymakers are bracing for an even more fractious trading relationship with potentially much higher tariffs at its heart. To help investors understand how the various fault lines in Sino-US relations could develop in Trump’s second term, our economists have prepared new insight that provides a succinct but comprehensive overview of the key risk areas to watch. In this report, you’ll learn about:
- Why Donald Trump’s tariff proposals won’t hurt the Chinese economy as much as most fear;
- The outlook is for China’s economy under a second Trump administration;
- The risks ahead for China, Taiwan and the potential for a more isolationist US.
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Trump's second term
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