US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) Existing home sales rebounded in February as buyers took advantage of falling mortgage rates. Weak mortgage applications data point to sales dropping back again in March, but with turmoil in the... 21st March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) Single-family housing starts continued their weak start to the year in February with a marginal month-on-month increase. While forward looking indicators appear to have turned a corner, homebuilders... 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rebound in mortgage rates hits housing demand Stronger-than-expected economic data in January led to a rebound in market interest rate expectations and a jump in mortgage rates from 6.2% at the start of February to 6.8% in March. That drove... 14th March 2023 · 10 mins read
US Housing Market Update Poor affordability key to bigger price falls in the West In this Update we examine the implications of affordability for house prices at the market level. Despite sunbelt markets seeing the strongest house price growth over the past couple of years... 6th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) Stronger-than-expected economic data led to a resurgence in mortgage rates in February, which put a stop to a tentative recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase. This points to sales... 1st March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec.) Despite a sixth consecutive month of falling house prices in December, affordability was still stretched even before the renewed rise in mortgage rates. As a result, it is likely that prices will... 28th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) Price reductions and generous incentives offered by homebuilders helped new home sales continue to outperform the wider market in January. But a renewed rise in mortgage rates will weigh on new home... 24th February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) The marginal decline in existing home sales in January supports our view that housing market activity is reaching a trough. But growing economic headwinds and stretched affordability mean sales will... 21st February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Demographics to boost homeownership in 2024 There are growing signs that stretched affordability is weighing on homeownership, particularly for the under 35s. We expect this to persist in the coming quarters. But there is a large pool of young... 17th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Single-family housing starts dropped back in January and the permits data add weight to our view that more weakness is to come. We think that starts will edge lower in the coming months, before an... 16th February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Slow recovery in sales and further falls in prices Housing market activity is likely to recover only gradually from its current lows, which means we think 2023 will be the weakest year for sales since 2012. Affordability will remain stretched by past... 10th February 2023 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) The sharp rise in mortgage applications in January adds to the evidence that housing demand has bottomed out. As mortgage rates continue to trend lower and house prices fall a further 6%, we expect... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov.) A fifth consecutive monthly decline in house prices in November left them down 2.5% from their peak in June on the Case-Shiller index. We think that prices will fall by a further 6% this year before... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Affordability won’t return to its post-GFC level Our forecasts for house prices, mortgage rates and incomes over the next few years mean affordability will remain relatively stretched compared with the past 15 years. But there is good reason to... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) The small rise in new home sales in December confirmed that the new build sector is holding up better than the wider market. This likely reflects builders offering generous incentives to attract... 26th January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) The modest fall in existing home sales in December suggests the impact of the spike in mortgage rates last year has largely washed through. The recent fall in mortgage rates has helped to lift... 20th January 2023 · 2 mins read
