Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Downturn in homebuilding has much further to run

The blowout in the pipeline of unfinished houses during the pandemic will reverse by the end of this year. With building approvals very low, dwellings investment will therefore fall further. While...

13th May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Shutting out institutional buyers won’t lower house prices

Lawmakers' current efforts to restrict institutional buying of single-family homes won’t put downward pressure on house prices if enacted, as their market share is minimal.

9th May 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS UK Construction PMI (Apr. 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI rose for the fifth consecutive month to 53.0 in April, a 14-month high. The rise was driven by improvements to the commercial and civil engineering components...

7th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Further rises in property yields still on the cards

The weakness in euro-zone investment in Q1 highlights that the pricing correction to date has not been enough to entice investors back to the sector. Lower market interest rates will support the...

2nd May 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Q1 RICS survey highlights diverging market views

While overall surveyor sentiment remains negative, the Q1 RICS survey appeared to show a divergence in views between respondents of where in the cycle the market currently is. We think the apparent...

26th April 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Fall in mortgage rates will allow market to recover

A slight rise in mortgage rates since the start of the year is likely to mean house prices stall in the near term. But our forecast that Bank Rate will be cut faster than most expect, to 3.00% by the...

15th March 2024 · 18 mins read

Event

Drop-In: UK Housing Market Outlook – Rates, sales, prices

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Now that mortgage rates have stopped falling, can the recovery in house prices continue? What will that mean for transaction levels and mortgage lending?

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 24)

All-property values are down by 15% since mid-2022. But, with cap rates set to climb toward 5.5% by the end of the forecast period, we think capital value falls have some way to go still, with the...

20th February 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Direct market values to fall despite signals from REITs

Typically, US REIT price indices have been a good indicator of the growth path for capital values in the direct market. That said, even though REIT prices rebounded in Q4 2023, we don’t expect the...

30th January 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4)

The Q4 RICS survey suggested that occupier and investment sentiment remained pessimistic in Q4. We expect sentiment will be subdued in at least the first half of 2024, with credit conditions staying...

25th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Our key calls for 2024

Falling interest rates will herald the end of the commercial property downturn in 2024. However, owing to price declines in H1 we still think values will end the year lower. Our forecast for...

5th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

Drop-In: 2024 US CRE Outlook – Another year of double-digit value falls

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We think more pain is in store for US commercial real estate as weak economic growth and high interest rates continue to take their toll.

UK Commercial Property Update

Takeaways from our Property in 2024 roundtables

This week, we held a series of property roundtable discussions with clients in our London office as part of our World in 2024 series. In this Update, we outline our thoughts on the most interesting...

14th December 2023 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Too early to call the bottom, with offices set for more pain

A weak economic outlook underpins our view that prime rent growth will continue to slow in Europe next year. At the same time, valuations remain stretched and the pace of recent yield rises suggests...

8th December 2023 · 35 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 23)

All-property values are down by 12.5% since mid-2022, but we expect an eventual decline of above 20%. Much of the correction at the all-property level is driven by our forecast for cap rates to go...

4th December 2023 · 1 min read