Global Economics Update Green tech and chips will remain key battlegrounds Several advanced economies have raised tariffs on imports of green technologies and semiconductors from China to address their growing trade deficits in these goods and tackle a perceived strategic... 3rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling fertility in Korea, government in retreat New figures released this week show that the fertility rate in Korea fell again last year to a new all-time low of just 0.72 births per woman. The decline in the fertility rate will weigh heavily on... 30th August 2024 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (August 2024) The economy is on course to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years. Headline CPI... 27th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EU semiconductor industry will continue to lag behind Although the EU is making progress in expanding its semiconductor production capacity, including through a new plant in Dresden, it is still a long way behind the US and Asia and is unlikely to catch... 23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Reforms on the agenda in the Gulf, Morocco’s budget Reports this week suggest that Kuwait’s government will pursue public finance reforms to diversify revenues away from oil, but the reported measures appear to be small in the grand scheme of things... 15th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Global imbalances will continue to fuel fracturing The renewed widening of global imbalances has become another faultline in the fracturing of the world economy, and will continue to provoke trade barriers in the coming decades. With overall... 14th August 2024 · 17 mins read
China Economics Update Urbanisation won’t be a key growth driver In its new urbanisation plan, China’s government is setting its targets low. The goal of reaching a 70% urbanisation rate in five years’ time could be met with far smaller increases in the urban... 2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tensions ratcheting up, Egypt-IMF, Saudi Q2 data Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are on the brink of boiling over after Israel’s assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas officials this week. It remains to be seen what the response... 1st August 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Update Will ageing populations drag on productivity? As well as adversely impacting the growth of the workforce, ageing populations may also have a small negative impact on productivity. There is plenty of scope for this to be offset by a positive boost... 29th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ageing population to weigh on EZ labour market Net immigration to euro-zone countries will probably be higher than the UN assumes in its latest population forecasts. But we still think the working age population will decline over the coming decade... 25th July 2024 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s energy woes need a permanent fix The electricity blackouts that have blighted Egypt this summer may be nearing an end. But in the absence of new major gas discoveries, in the longer run rising energy demand will result in renewed... 23rd July 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Finance Ministry continues to show fiscal restraint Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has shown a commitment to fiscal consolidation while for the most part placating the BJP’s coalition partners in today’s FY24/25 Union Budget announcement. There is... 23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Plenum Decision fleshes out existing reform agenda The complete Third Plenum “Decision” document provides interesting details on the leadership’s reform agenda across a range of areas. Overall though, it reinforces the central message in last week’s... 22nd July 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Trump and Saudi-US relations, IMF growth downgrades Donald Trump has laid out his intentions of restoring warm ties with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election, with the intention of pulling Saudi back into the US’s orbit in a fracturing global economy... 18th July 2024 · 6 mins read
