Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

The past month has seen Egypt’s economic crisis turn around with the devaluation of the pound, aggressive interest rate hike, and unlocking of a new IMF deal. There have been false dawns before, but...

27th March 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Economic Outlook

Increasing economic slack to trigger interest rate cuts

We expect weak GDP growth of 0.8% this year, and a fall in inflation to less than 2% next year, to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate back to 2.5% by mid-2025. A recovery in...

26th March 2024 · 14 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (Mar. 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and the latest data...

26th March 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

A soft 2024, but faster growth around the corner

Low oil output in the Gulf will constrain GDP growth over the first half of this year. But as this reverses, growth will pick up and by more than most expect. Elsewhere in Middle East and North Africa...

25th March 2024 · 20 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (March 2024)

GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here...

22nd March 2024 · 1 min read

India Economics Weekly

Election countdown, our new EM risk indicators

We've entered the final few weeks before India's general election kicks off. All the signs point to another win for Prime Minister Modi's BJP but what really matters for the economy is whether the...

22nd March 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Flexible EGP on the rise, Morocco’s cautious central bank

The Egyptian pound has appreciated by 10% against the dollar in the past couple of weeks since its devaluation, providing hope that the CBE is finally following through with its commitment to a more...

21st March 2024 · 6 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan External Trade (Feb. 24)

The trade balance didn’t fall nearly as much as most had anticipated in February and net trade will only provide a small drag on Q1 GDP growth.

21st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

EM financial risk – An early warning system

The past few years have sharpened investors’ focus on assessing risks and vulnerabilities across the EM world. We have developed a comprehensive suite of indicators to identify early signs of a...

20th March 2024 · 17 mins read

Climate Economics Update

“New Three” export prices continue to plunge

The latest monthly trade data from China highlight how the huge expansion in local manufacturing capacity is pushing down green technology prices and will only add to western concerns about trade...

20th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2024)

Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest...

18th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Would Vietnam win a second trade war?

Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated)...

18th March 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Australia’s sensitivity to Chinese demand rising again

Easing trade tensions and the relative resilience of iron ore prices relative to prices of fossil fuels have once again lifted China’s importance as a destination for Australia’s exports over the last...

15th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The good and bad of Egypt’s policy shift, Aramco transfer

Last week’s policy moves in Egypt have raised concerns about a fresh surge in inflation, particularly after the jump recorded in the February CPI data. But while inflation may increase again in March...

14th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Climate Economics Update

“New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data

Amid increasing concerns in the west over China’s dominance in the production of solar panels, electric vehicles, and lithium-ion batteries – dubbed the “New Three” – China’s exports of green...

14th March 2024 · 0 mins read