India Chart Pack The geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting from maintaining its historic unaligned stance in tensions between the US and Russia. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, India has been ramping up oil imports from Russia to... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Mar. 2023) The trade deficit narrowed in March as import values fell faster than export values. Data for Q1 so far are still consistent with a negative contribution from net trade to GDP. 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s strong growth unlikely to be sustained Romania's economy has outperformed its peers in Central and Eastern Europe over the past year, but domestic demand looks unsustainably strong and a period of weaker growth will be needed to reduce the... 19th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central banks’ reaction functions diverge Central banks in Australia and New Zealand have taken starkly different approaches to managing the inflation-unemployment trade-off in their countries. Despite being behind the curve on interest-rate... 17th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s first 100 days, Chile’s and Brazil’s export boost This week marked Brazil’s president Lula's first 100 days in office and, while there’s been a bit more enthusiasm from investors for Brazilian assets in the past week, the big picture is that it’s... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Core inflation remains stubborn, RUB under pressure The raft of March inflation data released across Emerging Europe this week showed that the regional disinflation process is now well underway, but that core price pressures remain incredibly strong... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Slowing wage growth dampens inflation hopes Governor Ueda said this week he will be watching if wage growth can be sustained at a level that will support inflation at or above target. So far, the signs aren’t encouraging. Wage growth has fallen... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian inflation, Tunisia-IMF, end to the Yemen war? Headline inflation in Egypt accelerated to its fastest pace since mid-2017 last month and, while there are tentative signs that it could be near its peak, the risk of another devaluation would push it... 13th April 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (Mar.) China’s exports unexpectedly jumped last month. But we aren’t convinced that this rebound will be sustained given the still gloomy outlook for foreign demand. Imports fell short of expectations but... 13th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade bearing the brunt of weak demand As of January, world trade had already fallen by more than 5% from its peak in September. And despite a slight boost from reopening in China, several leading indicators still point to further falls in... 11th April 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly New FTP will fall short of lofty ambitions The government's new Foreign Trade Policy is underpinned by ambitions to boost exports to US$2trn by FY29/30 and increase the use of the rupee settlement mechanism, both of which are tough tasks... 6th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak CEE activity data, Romania’s FX reserves surge The batch of hard activity data and surveys released across Central Europe this week were relatively weak and suggest that GDP contracted in most countries again in Q1. Downside risks to Q2 have also... 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ cuts and the Gulf, Saudi labour, Morocco-IMF The surprise voluntary oil output cut by OPEC+ will directly shave 1-2%-pts off GDP growth in the region’s members this year, which has prompted us to revise down our 2023 GDP growth forecasts. That... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Feb. 2023) The widening of the trade surplus in February largely reflects the fact that imports of goods and services fell at a much faster rate than exports. Therefore, even though net trade will make a... 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Feb. 2023) 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
