Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Acc. (Q3) Annual GDP growth in Chile dropped to a five-year low in Q3, but on a quarterly basis growth edged up a little. We expect a further, albeit gradual, recovery over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia-China FTA will help rebalance Australia’s economy Australia signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with China yesterday that will give its exporters a surprising amount of access to China’s market. The biggest opportunities lie in the agriculture and... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely despite subsidy cuts Today’s move by Indonesia’s new president to hike fuel prices is an encouraging first step on the road to reform. Although inflation is now likely to rise sharply, any spike should prove temporary... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus to a new record in September was an encouraging sign that exporters are starting to benefit from the weaker euro. But the ECB will need to deliver on hints... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Oct.) Given the recent sharp falls in global oil prices, the relatively small narrowing of India’s trade deficit in October is disappointing. A renewed slump in exports is to blame. Looking ahead... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly China-Korea free trade deal is not a game changer The recently announced free-trade deal between Korea and China has generated plenty of optimistic headlines. However, we are sceptical the deal will have much impact, and it certainly isn’t going to... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How could the second China – Russia gas deal impact prices? Additional proposed gas exports from Russia to China are unlikely to have a major impact on European gas prices. We see a greater threat arising from the potential long-term price impact of Europe’s... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs under little threat from lower oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has led some to call into question the sustainability of the Gulf’s dollar pegs. However, we think the risk of currency devaluation is relatively small. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3), Pol. CPI (Oct.) & Turkey Current Acc. (Sep.) Russia’s economy performed better than even we had expected in Q3, but this predates the most recent slump in oil prices. We still expect the economy to slip into recession next year. Elsewhere... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Improvement in current account position here to stay The recent sharp falls in gold and oil prices could feasibly push India’s current account into surplus over the coming months. Given that India’s large external deficit made its markets among the... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to keep rates on hold well into 2015 Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold again today despite the ongoing weakness of the economy. A large current account deficit and an uncertain outlook for inflation mean rates are likely to... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Fragile EM export recovery facing more headwinds EM export growth picked up in September, continuing the sluggish recovery seen since the start of this year. However, the improvement remains concentrated in a handful of EMs, with commodity producers... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Sep.) The current account surplus climbed to a fresh high in September, and the weaker exchange rate should provide additional support in coming months. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Some brighter signs in China’s trade data There were signs of a pick-up in copper imports in China’s October trade data, while iron ore and crude oil imports were still up strongly in year-on-year terms. However, exports of some refined raw... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade & Inflation (Oct.) Over-invoicing continues to distort both China's exports and its imports, but the underlying picture is of healthy foreign demand and subdued demand at home. Meanwhile, the inflation data have... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
