China Economics Update Six non-consensus calls for China for 2026 Almost everyone expects real economic growth in China to slow next year. But most forecasters think the picture will brighten in nominal terms thanks to a rebound in inflation and a bottoming out of... 1st December 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Are first-time buyers fuelling the house prices rally? The less stringent criteria for accessing the government’s support scheme for first-time home buyers hasn’t noticeably boosted overall housing demand. Indeed, the key constraint remains extremely... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian housing can’t buck its affordability problem Australia's house price growth picked up further in November and leading indicators suggest the rally has further to run. However, with the RBA unlikely to lower interest rates any further, mortgage... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook UK Commercial Property Outlook: Higher gilt yields and taxes to weigh on recovery With the 10-year gilt yield now set to be higher for longer and the Budget likely to raise taxes on households, the outlook for commercial property has become a bit gloomier. We now expect total... 25th November 2025 · 26 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/ FHFA House Prices (Sep 2025) The 0.1% m/m rise in house prices in September matched August’s modest gain, and points to a tentative house price recovery from here. We are predicting that a pick-up in demand paired with nagging... 25th November 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mansion tax may not be as big as previously feared An average annual council tax surcharge in the Budget on 26 th November of possibly around £2,000 for owners of the most expensive homes may be only a modest drag on activity and prices at the top end... 21st November 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property stimulus plans, Japanification of the bond market Policymakers are mulling a new property stimulus package, including mortgage subsidies for new homebuyers. But this is unlikely to revive demand, as most households remain reluctant to buy in a... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Oct. 2025) Lower borrowing costs were behind the further small pick-up in existing home sales last month. As we expect less Fed policy easing next year than markets are currently pricing in, however, mortgage... 20th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Has the Sun Belt lost its shine? Lower net domestic migration has substituted in for the earlier supply glut as the main factor putting downward pressure on house prices in the Sun Belt’s previously red-hot metros. We doubt the... 19th November 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) While the recent pace of transactions and house price growth is unlikely to be sustained over the coming months, we doubt it will slow by as much as some sentiment indicators suggest. But by crimping... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Nov. 2025) October’s housing data were broadly positive, with sales and prices both up on the month. We expect falling starts and a lower path for the Bank’s policy rate than markets are pricing in to drive a... 18th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of this year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3% early next year. Core inflation is likely to remain above... 13th November 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 2025) October’s RICS survey provides further evidence that Budget uncertainty is dampening buyer sentiment and is contributing to the continued decline in the supply of rental properties. Tax rises in the... 13th November 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) If the Chancellor raises taxes by around £38bn (1.1% of GDP) in the Budget on 26th November as we expect, that may knock 0.2 percentage points off our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.2%. But it supports... 7th November 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Oct. 2025) The chunky rebound in the Halifax measure of house prices in October chimes with the recent monthly rises on the alternative Nationwide measure and implies that September’s 0.3% m/m fall was a blip... 7th November 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Oct. 25) 6th November 2025 · 1 min read
