Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cuts won’t result in faster house price growth With housing affordability still extremely stretched, we expect house price growth to remain muted even as mortgage rates are set to fall further. However, there’s more scope for dwellings prices to... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2025) The near-term outlook for Canada is a little bleak. After a solid first quarter, we expect GDP growth to be muted as the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come weighs on exports, consumer... 21st May 2025 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook UK Commercial Property Outlook: Property insulated from tariffs but recovery weak UK commercial property is relatively well insulated from the direct impact of US tariffs, and some sectors may even see small benefits. Rental growth has also held up better than expected. But with... 20th May 2025 · 26 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we be worried about the UAE’s credit boom? Credit growth in the UAE has boomed, fuelling a sharp rise in property prices, particularly in Dubai. Prices are now at risk of a correction which, in the past, has fed into banking and debt worries... 20th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Housing market weakness becomes harder to ignore The softening housing market has mostly flown under the radar, but that is soon likely to change following April’s data, which showed house prices taking another sharp leg down. Combined with the... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Apr. 2025) The small rebound in housing starts in April is more troubling than it appears, as it barely recoups the sharp, weather-related decline seen in March and conceals renewed weakness in both single- and... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong property prices won't recover this decade While sales volumes have picked up since the start of last year, we expect residential property prices in Hong Kong to continue to fall until Fed cuts resume. Even then, given the structural headwinds... 14th May 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Assessing the risks to single-family home construction Fears that single-family housing starts are on the verge of collapse because of the large buildup of new homes for sale are overblown. The accumulation largely reflects smaller private builders... 12th May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update US domestic migration trends to persist, but flows from abroad are at risk The latest data from the Census Bureau show that regional and metro-level migration trends seen in the post-pandemic years persisted up to mid-2024. But the six major markets, along with other large... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Apr. 2025) The 0.3% m/m rise in Halifax house prices (consensus forecast -0.1% m/m, CE 0.0% m/m) provides tentative evidence that the falls in house prices are already in the past. That lends some support to our... 8th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update UK RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr. 2025) The housing market should pull out of its current funk in the coming months even if the Bank of England were to suggest later today that interest rates won’t fall as fast as the financial markets... 8th May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK single-family homes an attractive option for investors Single-family homes have outperformed other residential sectors over the past four years as a race for space and stretched homebuyer affordability have supported demand, at the same time as developers... 7th May 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Apr. 25) The headline CIPS construction PMI edged up to 46.6 in April, from 46.4 in March. That left the balance below 50 and consistent with a contracting construction sector. 7th May 2025 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook US Housing Outlook: Market in need of rate relief that is not coming President Trump’s inflationary trade and immigration policies leave no clear path to the lower borrowing costs that the housing market desperately needs. A tariff-driven resurgence in inflation will... 2nd May 2025 · 15 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook UK Housing Outlook: Housing relatively well insulated from Trump tariffs While the more uncertain global backdrop due to the new US tariffs regime means we have become more confident in our below-consensus UK GDP forecast, the prospect of falling mortgage rates suggests UK... 1st May 2025 · 17 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Mar. 2025) March’s money and lending data suggest households were starting to spend more cautiously even before the full hit to consumer confidence from the heightened uncertainty caused by the new US tariffs... 1st May 2025 · 3 mins read
