Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) With house prices having risen for the third month in a row, there is a growing risk to our view that the housing downturn has further to run. Nonetheless, with rising interest rates set to squeeze... 1st June 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar.) In line with the stronger-than-expected economic data releases at the start of the year, house prices proved resilient in March. But we expect the economy to weaken in the coming months, which will... 30th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rise in mortgage rates will trigger renewed downturn The upward revision to our Bank Rate forecast suggests that mortgage rates will return to a similar peak as last autumn by the end of the year. That would undermine the recent pick-up in mortgage... 30th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Tight supply limits US and UK house price falls The increase in mortgage rates has been the main determinant of the size of house price falls in developed market economies. Very tight supply in the US, and to a lesser extent the UK, has also... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation (May 23) The larger than anticipated rebound in mortgage approvals in March and a slowdown (or even partial reversal) of house price falls suggested that the housing market downturn may have ended much earlier... 19th May 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Longer mortgage terms ease affordability constraints Borrowing over a longer period significantly reduces monthly mortgage payments. So the accelerated shift towards loans with a term of 35 or 40 years rather than 25 has probably helped to mitigate the... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) In contrast to signs of a stabilisation in house prices and sales volumes in other indicators, the RICS survey remained downbeat in April. In particular, the renewed fall in the new buyer enquiries... 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) The small slip in the Halifax House Price index in April bought it a little more in line with the Nationwide figures. But prices remain remarkably resilient to the largest rise in mortgage rates since... 9th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tight supply supporting house prices While home sales have plummeted, house prices have fallen just 3% so far and eked out a small gain in February. We think this reflects the role that tight supply is playing in this downturn, with the... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) The pause in house price falls in April suggested that the reversal of the autumn spike in mortgage rates has allowed prices to stabilise. But with affordability still very stretched by historical... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) The ongoing rebound in house prices is living on borrowed time. With affordability extremely stretched and the economy poised for a sharp downturn, we’re sticking to our forecast that house prices... 2nd May 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Takeaways from our housing roundtables Alongside the publication of our Q2 UK Housing Outlook this week, we held a series of roundtable meetings for clients in London. Here we sum up our thoughts on three key questions which recurred... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly House prices in New Zealand will keep falling The RBNZ's proposal to ease loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions is unlikely to be a panacea for New Zealand's ailing housing market. With housing still far too unaffordable for most, house prices... 28th April 2023 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Update Recession to weigh on housing recovery The housing market will face growing headwinds from tighter credit conditions, slowing income growth and rising unemployment as the economy enters a recession this year. That will offset some of the... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Partway through the correction While house price declines have slowed and economic activity has proven more resilient than expected over the three months since our last Outlook, we are sticking to our forecast that house prices... 26th April 2023 · 23 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) New home sales jumped in March and house prices increased 0.2% m/m in February. The continued resilience of the housing market means the risk to our forecast of an 8% drop in house prices are now to... 25th April 2023 · 3 mins read
