Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) With house prices now at a record high and affordability constraints becoming increasingly binding, Australia’s housing rebound will soon run out of steam. 1st November 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Aug. 2023) Another large gain in house prices in August suggests that the extremely limited supply of existing homes for sale continued to outweigh high mortgage rates. We think monthly gains in house prices... 31st October 2023 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will hit the brakes once more With inflation surprising on the upside in Q3, we expect the RBA to lift rates by 25bp at its meeting next week. However, we suspect that the next rate hike will be the last one in the current cycle... 31st October 2023 · 8 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack London Housing Chart Pack (Q4 2023) London house prices have fallen by less than we anticipated, and stopped falling altogether in Q3. However, the high level of house prices compared to incomes should mean that higher mortgage rates... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Strong immigration is unlikely to be enough to prevent a mild recession, with GDP contracting... 25th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our forecast that the Bank of England won’t start cutting interest rates until the second half of 2024 means mortgage rates are likely to stay between 5% and 6% until mid-2024. While transactions... 23rd October 2023 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower house prices will help pull down CPI inflation The renewed weakness in the housing market and likelihood that mortgage interest cost inflation will soon ease are reasons to expect core inflation to trend lower in the coming months. Next week, the... 20th October 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update What are house prices really doing? House prices are rising according to the Office for National Statistics but falling according to Halifax and Nationwide. Consistent downward revisions to the ONS House Price Index mean that we think... 19th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Oct.) The renewed increases in mortgage rates and new listings mean we now expect house prices to fall by 5% over the next six months. The big risk, however, is that we are underestimating the degree to... 17th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly From bust to boom and back again for housing The fall in house prices in September shows just how quickly conditions in the housing market have shifted and the plunge in the sales-to-new listing ratio points to more weakness to come. That is... 13th October 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 23) Surveyors reported the most widespread price falls since February 2009 in September as mortgage rates of over 5% took their toll. Looking ahead, a further slide in house prices appears inevitable. 12th October 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack Surging Treasury yields have pushed mortgage rates above 7.5%, higher than we had anticipated. If these borrowing rates persist, lending and sales volumes could fall even further in the near term... 10th October 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to retain their... 10th October 2023 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response Halifax House Prices (Sep. 23) The sixth consecutive monthly decline in the Halifax House Price Index in September leaves it significantly more downbeat than the Nationwide figures about near-term momentum in house prices. Given... 6th October 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The housing rebound will continue to lose momentum over coming months as affordability is increasingly stretched, but policy easing by the RBA should provide a renewed boost to prices next year. 2nd October 2023 · 5 mins read
