Asia Economics Update What do high oil prices mean for Asia? The recent jump in oil prices does not alter the outlook for Asia’s economies. But if prices were to rise significantly further, we would be most concerned about the impact on India and Sri Lanka. 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook No rush to raise rates 2018 will be the first year this century that the Australian economy won’t benefit from either a mining or housing boom. In those circumstances, we doubt that GDP growth will rise above 2.5%. And... 28th January 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Oil exporters take mixed approach to higher oil prices The recent rally in oil prices has brightened the outlook for the majority of frontier oil exporters. In the Gulf, for example, higher oil prices and strong balance sheets have enabled the authorities... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are we underestimating the impact of the tax cuts? The surge in the stock market and wave of firms announcing wage increases and bonuses since the Tax Cut and Jobs Act passed have fuelled optimism that tax cuts are reviving “animal spirits” and... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) The gradual strengthening in core inflation evident in December’s consumer price figures would seem to justify the Bank of Canada’s recent decision to raise interest rates again. 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary Estimate of GDP (Q4) The preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP revealed that the economy picked up pace in the final three months of 2017, rounding off a solid, albeit unspectacular year. This supports our view that the... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Cycle to turn in 2018 Most economies in Emerging Europe had a very strong end to 2017, but we expect regional growth to soften in the coming quarters. The economic cycle in Central Europe is now looking mature and growth... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would Japan benefit from higher interest rates? Some commentators have been arguing that the Bank of Japan should be raising interest rates now to support household incomes. However, it isn’t clear whether this would boost household spending, while... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What will Thailand do about the “strong” baht? The Thai authorities are becoming increasingly concerned by the strength of the baht, which has been one of the best performing emerging market currencies over the past year. The most likely policy... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA shift puts Argentine peso under pressure It’s been a good start to 2018 for Latin America’s financial markets, with equities outperforming those in developed markets, currencies posting strong gains against the dollar, and bond spreads... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth stabilises at the end of 2017 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic conditions stabilised at the end of last year after a fairly sharp slowdown since the middle of 2017. Growth may pick up slightly in the near term... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jan.) All the main balances of the CBI’s Distributive Trades Survey fell back in January. Nonetheless, the survey’s past relationship with the official figures continues to point to solid retail sales... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) January’s rise in German Ifo business sentiment is another sign that the economy is going great guns, but with the euro so strong the ECB seems unlikely to give a firm end date for its asset purchases... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Econ. Tend. Survey (Jan.) & Unemploy. (Dec.) The Economic Tendency Survey suggests that the Swedish economy lost some momentum at the start of 2018. But this is unlikely to prevent the Riksbank from tightening policy later this year. 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Prepare for turbulence Since his election late last year, President João Lourenço has embarked on a surprisingly bold programme of economic reforms. In this Watch we argue that President Lourenço’s reform plans will help to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
