Global Economics Update Who’s afraid of a China slowdown? EMs in Latin America and Emerging Asia have benefitted most from China’s recovery over the past 18 months. These economies therefore have the most to lose if China begins to weaken again, although the... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who’s afraid of a China slowdown? EMs in Latin America and Emerging Asia have benefitted most from China’s recovery over the past 18 months. These economies therefore have the most to lose if China begins to weaken again, although the... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) The 0.4% m/m increase in November’s GDP was reassuring after the near-stagnation in October, and December was probably a good month too, but we remain concerned that growth will slow in the first half... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence January’s GfK/NOP confidence survey suggested that consumers started the year in fairly good spirits. And with real earnings likely to recover in the second half of this year, there is scope for... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q4 Advanced) Taiwan’s GDP growth rose in Q4 to the fastest in nearly three years. We think the economy will cool over the quarters ahead. On the plus side, domestic demand is likely to hold up well supported by... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Household sentiment remained strong at the start of 2018 and suggests that the expansion in consumer spending has further to run. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Jan.) While the survey data have yet to fully reflect the slowdown in growth shown on our China Activity Proxy, the latest decline in the official PMI does add weight to the view that the economy is cooling... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q4) It is possible that price pressures are a little stronger than the CPI data for the fourth quarter suggest. But the main message is that inflation is still hovering just below the 2-3% target and it... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) Industrial production recorded another marked rise last quarter which suggests that GDP growth remained strong. However, the outlook for the coming months is less rosy. 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth prospects still bright, after strong Q4 National accounts data published in the past few days confirm that the world economy maintained its momentum in Q4 last year, and all the signs are that it has started 2018 on a strong note. We expect... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) The 1.0% q/q rebound in Mexican GDP in Q4 was larger than expected but needs to be viewed alongside the -0.3% q/q contraction in Q3. While a stronger US economy will provide a prop to growth this year... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Region to mount a recovery Growth in the Middle East and North Africa slowed to its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2017, but the region is set for a recovery over the next twelve months. The rebound in growth... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures revealed a widening divergence between borrowing to fund a house purchase and borrowing to fund other areas of spending. However, we don’t think that... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4, prelim. flash) & EC Survey (Jan.) Euro-zone GDP growth continued at a healthy pace in Q4 and, while the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator declined in January, it continues to point to a pick-up in growth to come. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) January’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that growth in the region as a whole may have picked up even further at the start of this year, to about 5.5-5.8% y/y... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Economy becoming increasingly formalised A key theme running through the government’s latest Economic Survey is the growing numbers of workers and firms being brought into the formal economy, and so subject to taxation and closer regulatory... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
