Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) GDP growth slowed sharply last quarter and we think that the economy won’t expand as strongly this year as it did in 2017. 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB survey points to faster wage growth The January NFIB small business survey paints an upbeat picture of economic activity, but it also suggests that the markets are right to focus on the prospect of faster wage growth this year. 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook MPC to respond to robust growth with more rate hikes Having barely slowed in 2017, contrary to predictions of a substantial negative impact from the Brexit vote, we think that the economy will defy renewed expectations of a slowdown this year. Amid... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack A robust start to 2018 The official data suggest that the Nordic & Swiss economies recorded fairly mixed performances at the end of last year. So far, only Norway has published national accounts data for Q4. This release... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How well is Ireland's economy really performing? Ireland’s national accounts are notoriously unreliable as indicators of domestic economic activity, but alternative indicators suggest that the economy is performing well. Looking ahead, while growth... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is inflation about to take off? One explanation for the recent slump in equity and bond prices is that investors have become concerned that inflation is about to take off, forcing central bankers to tighten policy more rapidly than... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austria to remain a star performer The outlook for Austria is bright. Policies announced by the new Government should help to support consumer spending and investment. And while we expect export growth to weaken next year, Austria... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE Q4 GDP data to confirm strong finish to 2017 The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) due later this week is likely to show that the region’s economies continued to grow at a rapid pace at the end of 2017, at around 5.3% y/y... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy turning the corner The latest data suggest that the worst of the downturn in the Saudi economy had passed in late 2017 and a recovery should get underway over the coming months. The limited evidence so far suggests that... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Budget deal raises risks further ahead The budget deal will raise federal spending this year by as much as 0.7% of GDP, providing an extra fiscal stimulus to an economy already boosted by the recent tax cuts. While that will mean 2018 is a... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing faces tighter regulation and higher rates The early regional evidence from Toronto and Vancouver revealed that the tightening of mortgage lending standards at the start of this year did hit home sales in January, but the declines were not... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The hike in Ontario’s minimum wage to $14.00 an hour on January 1st, from $11.60, had a devastating impact, with 59,300 part-time jobs lost in the first month alone, equivalent to 4.3% of part-time... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexican industrial production returned to growth in December, on the back of a (delayed) rebound in construction activity following September’s earthquakes. However, the impact of the earthquakes is... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Italy’s economy really booming? With three weeks to go before Italy’s election, the latest surveys suggest that the economy is performing very well. But the official data paint a less rosy picture. On balance, we think that GDP will... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will this still be a Goldilocks year for the world economy? Notwithstanding the recent turbulence in equity markets, global economic growth should hold up well and inflation remain low this year. But next year, some of the shine will come off this strong... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Dec.) The deluge of hard data for December provides further evidence that it was the domestic demand and the services sector that drove the pick-up in growth in Q4. However, temporary distortions mean that... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
