Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s GDP growth was unchanged at 4.0% y/y in Q4 as a slightly smaller drag from the oil sector was offset by a weaker performance in the non-oil economy. But we think that growth will drop back... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF equity transfer, Russia-Ukraine crisis The transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco from the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will not diversify government revenues away from oil as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would like to... 17th February 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Olympics highlights growing rift with the West At the Beijing Winter Olympics, China is once again displaying its sporting prowess. But the international reception has been notably icier than that for the 2008 Summer Games, highlighting that China... 17th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4, revised) Omicron is likely to prove only a small stumbling block on the road to recovery after the strong growth of late 2021. We still expect GDP to return to its pre-pandemic trend later this year. 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia-Ukraine and the impact on the rest of the region The rest of Emerging Europe is particularly exposed if a further escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions lead to higher global energy prices and disruptions to commodity exports, with Bulgaria and the... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Weak investment highlights long-run challenges Business investment has been much weaker in Canada than the US since the pandemic, which helps to explain why productivity growth has lagged. There are reasons to be optimistic about the next couple... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 1.4% m/m rebound in industrial production in January appears to confirm that the Omicron wave has had surprisingly little impact on the economy. That said, the weakening global backdrop suggests... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Ukraine’s macro vulnerabilities Ukraine’s economy as a whole is in a better position to weather significant capital flight and sharp falls in the hryvnia than at any point in the past decade. But even so, there are key pockets of... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel GDP (Q4 2021) Israel’s economic recovery unexpectedly accelerated at the end of last year, with the 16.6% annualised rise in GDP in Q4 pushing it far above its pre-pandemic trend. Alongside the rise in inflation to... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Dec.) December’s hard activity data show that South Africa’s economy held up well in the face of the Omicron virus wave. GDP probably expanded by around 0.9% q/q in Q4, implying growth of 4.6% over 2021 as... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) The rise in euro-zone industrial production in December took it above its pre-pandemic level and timelier evidence points to a small increase at the start of this year. But input shortages remain... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) The stronger-than-expected 4.3% q/q surge in Colombia’s GDP in Q4 took output back to its pre-pandemic trend, confirming the recovery has been one of the quickest in the region. Although we still... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for German and Swiss government bonds We expect a gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to re-emerge as policy support is withdrawn more quickly by the ECB than by the SNB. 15th February 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China-Taiwan ≠ Russia-Ukraine A Russian invasion of Ukraine would not make a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely and would not undermine the willingness or ability of Taiwan’s allies to come to its defence. 15th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have intensified over the past month as growing tensions between Ukraine and Russia and the prospect of tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recapping the Russia-Ukraine crisis Tensions between Russia and the West have intensified and rattled global financial markets. Amidst the uncertain situation, this Update brings together some of the key implications of the crisis for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
