US Economics Update What to make of the fall in participation With most workers who left during the pandemic mostly returned to the labour force by early 2022, it is little surprise that growth of the labour force has slowed. But the decline in the participation... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU & the rule of law dispute: why do EU funds matter? EU funds will provide a key boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years as the region navigates a challenging macro environment and slowing global growth. Disputes with the... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rhine troubles add to pressure on German industry The fall in the Rhine’s water level is a small problem for German industry compared to the gas crisis, or indeed the recent shortage of semiconductors. But if it persists until December it could... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Consumer prices were unchanged in July and there's a good chance that prices will fall outright in August. With core consumer prices increasing by a more modest 0.3% m/m last month, which was a 10... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Unlikely to replicate exceptional growth again Ethiopia has been grappling with the fallout from its internal conflict and severe drought which, coming alongside spillovers from the war in Ukraine, will result in much weaker growth in the coming... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The implications of an escalating Taiwan crisis The extent to which neighbouring countries would be affected by an escalation of tensions between China and Taiwan would depend both on which sides they take and on the nature of restrictions imposed... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jul.) The increase in CPI-ATE to a record-high will have raised eyebrows at the Norges Bank. We think another 50 basis point hike at next week’s interim meeting is likely. 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Drop in productivity most likely a statistical mirage The 2.5% slump in productivity over the past year – the worst since records began in 1948 – is another illustration of the chasm that has opened up between the GDP and employment figures. The only... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Surging unit labour costs are a danger to the US stock market Today’s news that unit labour costs in the US nonfarm business sector grew at a near double-digit annual pace in Q2 2022, as soaring wages interacted with negative productivity growth, hasn’t ruffled... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Will Canadians retire themselves into a recession? The sharp increase in retirements this year presents downside risks to our forecasts for employment and, with GDP growth already faltering, further raises the probability that economic activity will... 9th August 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rising interest costs will add to the pain for households A rise in Bank Rate to a peak of 3.00% wouldn’t dent real consumer spending anywhere near as much as the drag from surging inflation over the coming quarters. That said, it would only compound the... 9th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s LNG boost still a few years away With Russia tightening its squeeze on supply of gas to Europe, governments are turning their attention to other major gas exporters such as Qatar to try to fill the gap. But Qatar’s gas sector is... 9th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How big is the threat of an end to Russian gas exports? An end to Russian gas exports to Europe would prompt us to forecast a deeper recession in the euro-zone this winter than we currently anticipate. The hit would come partly through higher inflation... 9th August 2022 · 21 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q2) Economic growth in the Philippines unexpectedly slowed in Q2 and we expect growth to remain subdued in the second half of 2022 as high commodity prices, rising interest rates and weaker global demand... 9th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics How much does Taiwan matter? Taiwan matters far more to the world economy than its 1% share of global GDP would A further escalation in cross-strait tensions that cut Taiwan’s export off from the rest of the world would lead to... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update End of the EM tightening cycle creeping closer While DM central banks are currently raising interest rates in earnest, the past week has brought signs that tightening cycles are now nearing an end in parts of the emerging world. Indeed, with... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
