China Activity Monitor CAP: Knocked off course yet again Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that output declined in September by the most since the Omicron wave. The main culprit – renewed disruption from virus curbs – appears to have worsened further... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The Ifo Business Climate Index held up better than expected in October but was still extremely low. With other business surveys also persistently weak, we think Germany will experience the deepest... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (October) 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest downturns set to worsen October’s flash PMIs provided further evidence that several of the major advanced economies are heading into recessions. The surveys suggest that activity was already contracting at the start of Q4... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Slowdown to prompt early end to tightening cycle Economic growth in most countries looks set to slow sharply next year as weaker exports and higher interest rates weigh on activity. With price pressures starting to ease, we expect central banks to... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Oct.) The decline in the composite flash PMI to 47.2 in October took it further below the boom-bust level of 50.0, placing it deeper into contraction territory. This is consistent with recent data that... 24th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October) The flash PMIs for October provide yet more evidence that the euro-zone is sliding into quite a deep recession but that inflationary pressures remain intense. 24th October 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q3), Trade & Activity (Sep.) Growth ticked up in Q3 as the hit from the Omicron wave reversed. But this leaves output only slightly higher than where it started the year. And momentum is now weakening again. 24th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Policy rate heading toward 5% The data released this week showed that higher interest rates are yet to have much of a negative impact on construction or consumption and that core inflation is proving stickier than anticipated... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean consumers facing major headwinds Consumer spending in Korea looks to have held up well recently, but this looks set to change as higher inflation and rising interest rates start to drag on confidence. And with exports set to drop... 21st October 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Falling gas prices doesn’t mean energy crisis is ending The continued fall in European natural gas prices this week is a positive development for economies across Central and Eastern Europe, but the energy crisis will not go away anytime soon and we still... 21st October 2022 · 8 mins read
