Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Mar.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation, to 4.2% y/y last month, was encouragingly broad based among the sub-categories of the CPI basket. But we think the central bank will want to see more evidence... 12th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s property issues flare up again The fragility of Sweden’s property sector hit the headlines again this week as commercial real estate firm SBB suffered a downgrade of its credit rating to “junk” status and cancelled its dividend... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Surveys giving mixed messages at start of Q2 Q1 GDP releases have confirmed that the major economies avoided recession at the start of the year and some of the more recent survey data suggest that this resilience continued into Q2. The composite... 12th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Next year’s Shunto will disappoint the BoJ Ueda’s speech in the Diet on Tuesday left open the possibility of the Bank adjusting monetary policy before the policy review announced at the April meeting is completed next year. However, given that... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Mar. & Q1) The news that the economy contracted by 0.3% m/m in March and grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q1 as a whole (consensus +0.1% q/q, Bank of England 0.0% q/q, CE +0.1% q/q) suggests that lower real household... 12th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales bounced back strongly in March, supporting our view that the impact of the earthquakes was short-lived. GDP growth is likely to have remained positive in Q1. But... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) The economy expanded in Q1 but failed to completely offset the decline from the previous quarter. Growth is likely to remain weak over the coming quarters as elevated interest rates and weak external... 12th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Gulf: notes from the ground We were in the Gulf last week visiting clients and this Update takes stock of the key talking points that emerged, from a sense of optimism surrounding the Gulf economies to despair and fear regarding... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Bank of Japan kicking the can down the road Governor Ueda presided over his first policy meeting late last month and opted to keep all monetary policy settings, including Yield Curve Control (YCC), completely unchanged. To be sure, Mr Ueda also... 11th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Apr. 2023) The further rise in both the current and outlook readings point to continued upward momentum in services spending this quarter. Meanwhile, manufacturing conditions fell slightly but remained robust... 11th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) Growth slowed in Q1 and we expect the economy to weaken further over the coming quarters against a backdrop of weak global demand and high interest rates. 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market resilient to banking sector turmoil The US housing market has been largely unaffected by the banking sector turmoil. Indeed, buyer sentiment rose to an 11-month high in April and activity appears to have bottomed out. Tighter credit... 10th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The surprisingly strong 1.1% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that the economy fared a bit better than we’d expected in Q1. The risks to our GDP growth forecast for... 10th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal consolidation is put on the backburner The 2023/24 Budget unveiled yesterday by Treasurer Jim Chalmers was something of a mixed bag. On the one hand, the modest spending measures proposed by the government will not break the bank, thanks... 10th May 2023 · 3 mins read
