Asia Economics Weekly Weak start to Q2, hawkish BoK, Vietnam rate cut Recent national accounts data confirmed that most economies struggled in the first quarter of the year. The latest monthly activity data suggest that Q2 is shaping up to be another weak quarter... 26th May 2023 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Demonetisation redux? The RBI's announcement that it is withdrawing the INR2,000 note is likely to have evoked memories of the shock demonetisation exercise in 2016. But the economic impact should be much more limited this... 26th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Latest EM elections raise policy risks The results of elections in major EMs over the past month have increased macroeconomic policy risks. Most notably in Turkey, President Erdogan now has the edge ahead of a second-round presidential... 25th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s imbalanced recovery can’t be sustained Colombia’s very strong post-pandemic recovery has come at the expense of a build-up of large macroeconomic imbalances and a period of below-trend growth is needed to reduce these vulnerabilities. The... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German GDP (Q1, 2nd est.) The downward revision to Germany’s Q1 GDP means that the country has fallen into a technical recession and that euro-zone GDP probably stagnated in Q1 rather than expanding by 0.1% q/q. We expect... 25th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore set to struggle in 2023 Singapore’s economy is being hit hard by multi-decade high interest rates and elevated inflation. And with external demand set to weaken, we expect growth to be much weaker than consensus projections. 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Too soon to sound the all-clear for construction The turnaround in the housing market, with sales and prices rebounding in April, has raised hopes that construction will hold up despite elevated borrowing costs. Media reports suggest that buyer... 24th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Slowing growth, falling inflation and dovish central banks A strong rebound in tourism provided a big boost to growth in Thailand and Hong Kong last quarter, which along with China, were the three best-performing countries in Emerging Asia in Q1. But for the... 24th May 2023 · 15 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) Contradictory messages from the Ifo – which was very weak in May – and the Composite PMI mean the performance of the German economy in Q2 is uncertain. But regardless of how well the economy held up... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Nigeria’s economic growth slowed to just 2.3% y/y in Q1 as the damaging effects of a botched demonetisation process more than offset an easing of the drag from the oil sector. With the rise in oil... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle is at an end The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 25bp, to 5.50%, was in line with what most had anticipated. However, with the Bank sounding more dovish than it has in... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Resilience of activity won’t stop inflation falling The resilience of the April activity data and apparent stabilisation in housing have raised hopes that a recession may yet be avoided this year. That said, forward-looking indicators suggest that the... 23rd May 2023 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show strong service sector activity driving growth May’s PMIs suggest that activity in advanced economies has continued to hold up well amid a strong rebound in the service sector. Meanwhile, weak demand for manufactured goods is weighing heavily on... 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack A temporary rebound in growth The latest activity figures suggest that most Latin American economies held up better than we’d thought in the first few months of 2023. Mexico and Colombia made surprisingly strong starts to the year... 23rd May 2023 · 14 mins read
