China Economics Weekly China Weekly: PBOC promises to restore growth are falling flat China's bond market is sending a message that China's policymakers are unwilling to hear: their policy interventions are not improving the long-run outlook. 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA Board, Aus. Budget Update, NZ GDP Although the Australian Treasurer’s new appointments to the RBA’s monetary policy committee were well received, the same cannot be said of his mid-year Budget Update. The government appears intent on... 20th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Dovish BoK minutes, bumper rate cut in Pakistan The Bank of Korea’s minutes from its November meeting confirm that supporting the economy is now its main priority. We are expecting another 100bps of rate cuts next year in Korea. Meanwhile, Pakistan... 20th December 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Consensus expectations for 2025 are over-optimistic Consensus expectations for India’s economy suggest that it will grow at a similar pace in 2025 as it has in 2024. Certainly, data this week suggest that the economy is carrying good momentum into the... 20th December 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Trump policies will be mildly stagflationary We expect the incoming Trump administration’s policies to have a mildly stagflationary impact on the economy. Assuming that Trump introduces tariffs and immigration curbs via executive action by the... 19th December 2024 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Bracing for headwinds Headwinds to growth will remain strong in 2025 and our forecasts lie below the consensus. While more protectionist US trade policy will hit China and Mexico, the impact for most is likely to be... 19th December 2024 · 27 mins read
Global Economics Update Will Trump bring a halt to US outperformance? Donald Trump’s policies will be a net drag on US GDP growth over the next couple of years, but we doubt that his re-election will prevent the US from remaining the world’s pre-eminent global economy... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less... 19th December 2024 · 44 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should post decent growth in Q4 off the back of more forceful fiscal support. The... 19th December 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy to underwhelm in 2025 Saudi Arabia’s constrained approach to oil policy is here to stay until April and, coupled with the turn to fiscal consolidation, means growth will pick up by less than others expect in 2025. 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand GDP (Q3 2024) With activity in freefall, we expect the RBNZ to keep cutting rates aggressively over the year ahead. 18th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 18th December 2024 · 0 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Strong start to 2025 unlikely to be sustained The near-term economic outlook has brightened, with lower interest rates feeding through and consumption benefitting from the recent strong pace of real income growth. That should help to drive... 18th December 2024 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Growth under pressure amid persistent inflation Slowing growth across Emerging Europe in recent quarters has set a downbeat tone heading into 2025. With domestic and external headwinds remaining strong, we think that most economies in the region... 17th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 17th December 2024 · 19 mins read
