Event US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term 21st January 2025, 3:00PM GMT As the president-elect again prepares to take office, our US team held a special briefing to walk clients through what to expect in the opening phase of the second Trump administration.
Canada Economics Focus Trump, Tariffs, and the 51st State Donald Trump’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Canada suggests we should take his tariff threats seriously. We already assume that Trump includes Canada in a likely 10% universal import... 9th January 2025 · 19 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump 2.0 – US and Asia macro implications 14th January 2025, 8:00AM GMT 2025 has started with a bang as bonds have sold off amid growth and inflation fears – and the operating environment may only get more tricky from here.
UK Economics Update Troubling start to 2025 casts doubt over our key 2025 forecasts The troubling start to 2025 is casting doubt over our key non-consensus forecasts for 2025. But we still think other forecasters are underestimating how fast the economy will grow, how far inflation... 9th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the “periphery” continue to outperform? The outperformance of the peripheral economies since early 2022 is likely to continue over the next year, supported by high immigration, tourism growth and Next Generation EU funding. That said... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We are resending this publication because the heading of the previous version contained an error. With real household incomes set to fall again this year, the rebound in consumer spending will start... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Industrial Production (Nov.) German industrial production picked up in November. But the level of output was still very low by past standards and with industry facing several structural headwinds we expect the sector to continue... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Nov. 2024) 9th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What does 2025 hold in store for Brazil’s economy? Brazil’s recent period of rapid growth is likely to come an end this year. Sovereign debt concerns will almost certainly rumble on, but further piecemeal austerity measures will probably prevent... 8th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (December 2024) The EC survey is broadly consistent with euro-zone GDP stagnating in Q4. It also suggests that inflationary pressures remain sticky. 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Rise in corporate bankruptcies not a big concern The rise in corporate bankruptcies last year is not a huge concern, but it does add to the sense that firms are struggling more than the headline GDP and labour market data suggest. That in turn... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services Index (Dec. 2024) The rebound in the ISM services index in December will soothe concerns that the services sector is starting to run out of steam. Less positively, the surge in the prices paid index to a nearly two... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) There are increasing signs that interest rate cuts are feeding through to the real economy. Household consumption grew strongly in the third quarter and activity in the housing market has picked up... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
Event EM Drop-In: Turkey’s 2025 – Will policymakers get the job done? 9th January 2025, 2:00PM GMT Turkey’s shift back to macro orthodoxy made it a key EM success story last year, with inflation falling, the currency holding up and its financial markets delivering outsized
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Dec. 2024) December’s batch of PMIs declined for the most part across the Gulf but we doubt that the strength of non-oil activity will be sustained in 2025, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Elsewhere... 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam to remain a regional outperformer in 2025 GDP growth in Vietnam picked up in the fourth quarter of 2024 and we expect another year of strong growth in 2025, with the main support coming from exports. 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
