US Rapid Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov. 2024)

The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in November was as expected following recent hurricanes and the end of the Boeing strike, however the breakdown showed the sector is still stuck in a rut...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.)

The PMIs fell deeper into contractionary territory in Poland and Czechia last month, adding to the disappointing run of activity data out of Central Europe. In contrast, the PMIs rose in Turkey and...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (November)

The November PMIs for Asia remained weak and are consistent with our expectation for manufacturing activity in the region to remain subdued in the near term. The data also showed a modest pick-up in...

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

China Rapid Response

China PMIs (Nov. 2024)

While the Caixin services PMI fell a touch, the composite PMI rose which is consistent with our expectation for an acceleration in q/q GDP growth this quarter. Increased fiscal spending and the front...

2nd December 2024 (Updated 4th December 2024) · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 24)

2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

CBN optimistic on inflation, South Africa’s Article IV

Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Yemi Cardoso set out the case at this week’s MPC meeting for inflation to slow down, suggesting that officials are eyeing the end of the tightening cycle. But monetary...

29th November 2024 · 6 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Nov. 24)

The economy has already regained some momentum on the back of increased policy support. But this tailwind is unlikely to be sustained beyond a couple of quarters. And US tariffs will soon hurt China’s...

29th November 2024 · 0 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Growth, inflation and fiscal policy

Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy is struggling and that price pressures in the services sector are easing. Meanwhile, the European Commission published its assessment of...

29th November 2024 · 9 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Economy losing momentum, but public sector will help

The recent news on activity is probably overstating the weakness of the economy as it is not adequately capturing the increases in government spending and public investment. Even so, it does appear as...

29th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (Q3 & Sep.)

The 1.0% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was not as bad as it looks, with most of the weakness due to a big drag from the volatile inventories component and the Bank of Canada likely to be...

29th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

RUB under pressure, Israel ceasefire, Romania election

New US sanctions on Russia’s financial system have contributed to a sharp sell-off in the ruble this week and, while a tightening of capital controls has eased pressure on the currency over the past...

29th November 2024 · 7 mins read

India Rapid Response

India GDP (Q3 2024)

GDP figures show the economy slowed sharply last quarter, and we expect economic activity to struggle over the coming quarters. That bolsters the case for policy loosening, but the recent jump in...

29th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey GDP (Q3 2024)

The 0.2% q/q contraction in the Turkish economy in Q3 suggests that policymakers’ efforts to weaken demand and tame high inflation are taking effect. We still think that it would be premature for the...

29th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already...

28th November 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Don’t expect a big fiscal stimulus in Germany

It now seems increasingly likely that, as we had been expecting, Germany will loosen its strict fiscal rule after the upcoming general election. However, hopes of a big fiscal stimulus are likely to...

28th November 2024 · 4 mins read