Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (March 2025)

Euro-zone retail sales declined in March, reversing part of the increase in February. We expect spending growth to remain weak for the rest of the year as any support from lower interest rates is...

7th May 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

UK Weekly: Housing market adds to the downside risks to activity

We suspect that the recent slowdown in house prices this year is temporary. But while it is not our base case, a weaker housing market for longer would add to the downside risks to our already below...

2nd May 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Inflation risks remain two-sided, Labor leads in polls

With underlying inflation having returned to its 2-3% target range in Q1, the RBA is all but certain to cut rates by 25bp at its meeting later this month. However, given that timely data point to...

2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Retail Sales (Mar./Q1 2025)

2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Personal Income & Spending (Mar. 2025)

The almost unchanged level of core PCE prices in March is welcome news but, given the data precede the implementation of broad-based tariffs, core inflation will inevitably rebound sharply in the...

30th April 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar. 25)

30th April 2025 · 2 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: China’s Q1 growth weaker than officials claim

Our China Activity Proxy calls into question the consensus view, based on the official GDP figures, that China’s economy remained resilient at the start of this year. Despite some improvement in March...

29th April 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s non-oil sector unlikely to sustain strong start

Saudi Arabia’s economy enjoyed a relatively strong start to the year underpinned by its non-oil sector. But while GDP growth will accelerate this year as oil output rises, the coinciding slip in oil...

28th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Retail Sales (Feb. 2025)

The moderate decline in retail sales volumes in February was probably due to the unseasonably severe winter weather rather than the recent slump in sentiment, with the latest flash estimate implying...

25th April 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2025)

March’s rise in retail sales volumes meant sales rebounded by an impressive 1.6% q/q in Q1, rounding off a better-than-expected start to the year for the retail sector. That said, March’s rise was...

25th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Apr. 2025)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. At first glance, Australia and New Zealand should be fairly insulated from the brunt of the US’s...

24th April 2025 · 1 min read

China Economics Update

Can China's domestic consumers take the place of US ones?

Retail sales in China are more than ten times larger than the country’s exports to the US. As such, domestic goods consumption would only need to rise by a few percent over the next couple of years to...

22nd April 2025 · 4 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Retail Sales (Mar 2025)

A presumably temporary pre-tariff surge in motor vehicle sales drove the strong 1.4% m/m increase in retail sales in March. But there was also a big 3.3% m/m rebound in building materials sales and a...

16th April 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 25)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan's economy will be hit less hard than many other large economies by the recent escalation of...

15th April 2025 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Tariff fallout won’t send the RBA into panic mode

With concerns growing that Trump's trade war won't leave Australia unscathed, investors now expect the RBA to cut rates by 125bp across its easing cycle. The rout in financial markets also appears to...

11th April 2025 · 6 mins read