China Economics Update Overcapacity to keep China in deflation Deflation has reared its head again in China, underscoring the problem of persistent supply and demand imbalances. The limited extra support for consumption outlined at the National People’s Congress... 18th March 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China’s latest consumption plan fails to deliver China’s government has launched a new “Special Action Plan” to support consumption. Talk of prioritising consumption is encouraging on paper. But the leadership has been talking about this since a... 17th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: Tightening cycle has much further to run While trade tensions create downside risks, we expect GDP growth to be around trend this year. And following another strong showing in this year’s spring wage negotiations, wage growth will remain... 17th March 2025 · 18 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar. 2025) The plunge in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in March, paired with the surge in inflation expectations, indicates that consumers’ concerns about the impact of the Trump... 14th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Australian consumer in a soft patch, RBNZ’s Orr exits Australian national accounts data showed that private consumption growth edged up only modestly in Q4. What's more, timely data suggest that it could actually soften again this quarter. However... 7th March 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) Today’s retail sales release should mollify the RBA’s concerns that the pickup in consumer spending last quarter may have been a one-off. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our view that the Bank will... 4th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jan. 2025) The 0.28% m/m rise in core PCE prices in January was a big improvement on last year’s 0.5% m/m gain, but the 2.6% annual core inflation rate is still too hot for the Fed’s liking and, with... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 25) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 25) The January activity data suggest that GDP will have fallen this quarter, but that would follow strong gains in previous quarters. With inflation set to overshoot the Bank of Japan’s forecasts, we... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The RBA began its easing cycle with a 25bp cut this month, but it appeared in no hurry to loosen... 26th February 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s real estate boom not a concern (yet) Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector is in the midst of a boom and affordability among Saudi citizens for housing is becoming increasingly stretched, which may tempt the authorities to loosen lending... 19th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Why are Japan’s households not partying like its 1989? While household incomes are rising the most since the early 1990s, households are saving rather than spending the bulk of those gains. And with real income growth set to slow this year, we expect... 17th February 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The large fall in control group retail sales in January, together with the timelier data showing a slump in vehicle sales, suggests that real consumption fell last month. While weather effects were... 14th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 2025) With real household incomes rising the most in years and the savings rate rather high, the rebound in consumer spending will continue in 2025. And with the yen set to remain weak for longer and this... 12th February 2025 · 1 min read
