British retail sales rose 0.7% in March as motorists stocked up on petrol The strong rise in sales boosted by fuel purchases “is unlikely to be repeated in April”, said Ashley Webb, economist at Capital Economics. Weaker consumer confidence and expectations that... 24th April 2026 · Financial Times
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The surprisingly strong 0.7% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in March (CE forecast +0.5%, consensus +0.1%) meant that they rose by a chunky 1.6% q/q in Q1 overall. But April’s drop in consumer... 24th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (April) After a big drop in March, euro-zone consumer confidence fell again in April and reached its lowest level since late 2022, at a time when household consumption was declining. For now we suspect that... 22nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The sharp rise in retail sales in March mainly reflects the surge in gasoline prices, but control group sales were also stronger than we anticipated. That leaves us to estimate that real consumption... 21st April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Households lack cushion against gasoline price shock The sharp fall in the saving rate to 4.0% in February predates the Iran war and may signal what lies ahead as households absorb much higher fuel bills. This limited cushion suggests households will... 10th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr 2026) The plunge in consumer sentiment to a record low in April lends some support to our forecast that real consumption growth will be weak this quarter, even if the link between sentiment and spending has... 10th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Feb. 2026) The slightly softer-than-expected 0.10% m/m rise in real consumption in February, together with the downward revision to January’s estimate to show real spending unchanged, puts first-quarter... 9th April 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus Decoding the 15th Five-Year Plan China’s latest medium-term policy blueprint continues to elevate technological upgrading as the key to both security and growth. It acknowledges some of the negative side effects of industrial policy... 7th April 2026 · 51 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending (Feb. 26) The recent weakness in household spending won’t stop the RBA from hiking interest rates at its upcoming meeting next month given concerns about an unanchoring of inflation expectations. 7th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Feb 2026) The stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in control group retail sales in February suggests that consumption was gaining some momentum ahead of the surge in gasoline prices. Nonetheless... 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Time to bet against the American consumer? The backdrop of a struggling labour market, already low saving and weak consumer confidence makes it more likely that households will respond to latest real income shock by cutting spending, rather... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Feb. 2026) The modest fall in retail sales volumes in February meant that retail activity held onto most of its gains at the start of this year. But the decline in GfK consumer confidence in March due to the... 27th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) This special UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (March 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (March 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The government’s decision to cap gasoline prices means that inflation won’t rise far above the BoJ’s... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
