Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jun. 25) The rebound in industrial production in June confirms that Japan’s economy is shrugging off trade tensions and should prompt the Bank of Japan to revise up their forecasts for GDP growth at its... 31st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone households will remain reluctant to spend Households are still saving an unusually large share of their incomes and the latest surveys suggest that the saving rate will remain high in the near term, weighing on consumption. And while we... 30th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – shrugging off trade tensions We spent last week in Beijing and Shanghai visiting clients. The mood in China was not as downbeat as a year ago and our sense is that many companies and residents have adapted to the new normal of... 29th July 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Jun. 2025) June’s money and lending figures support wider evidence that the deteriorating jobs market has led to a rise in consumer caution as households have become a bit more cautious about spending. This... 29th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Possible tax rises may further dampen consumer spending The disappointing economic news this week suggests there is some downside risk to our forecast for GDP to rise by 0.2% q/q in Q3 as fears over tax rises in the Autumn Budget already appear to be... 25th July 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Jun. 2025) The disappointingly small rebound in retail sales in June supports our view that the economy grew by only 0.1% q/q in Q2 and means that the risks to our forecast for consumer spending to grow by 1.4%... 25th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (May 2025) The flash estimate showing a solid rise in retail sales in June, paired with the recent rebound in consumer confidence, suggests the decline in sales in May was more a reflection of demand normalising... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth slows in Q2 despite resilient industry Our China Activity Proxy shows that China’s activity growth remains well below what official figures suggest. While industrial activity has held up surprisingly well in the face of US tariffs, the... 24th July 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (July 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New... 24th July 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (July 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy has largely shrugged off global trade tensions and the trade deal reached between... 23rd July 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul. 2025) The small rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in July and further drop-back in inflation expectations shows that, while overall confidence remains weak, households are less... 18th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Tariff negotiations rumble on, but our base case remains that the tariffs ultimately imposed will not cause a recession – though we expect growth to slow. We forecast GDP growth of 1.6% this year and... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jun. 2025) The solid 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in June and similar-sized gains in core (ex. autos) and control group sales should dispel any fears that overall consumer spending is faltering in response to... 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update US consumer sector divergence echoed in winning retailer types The retail sector was suffering before the rise in tariffs as consumers were hit by higher costs and interest rates. But digging deeper exposes a divergent picture between higher and lower-earning... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
