Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Q2)

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (June 24)

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

High household saving rate unlikely to plummet

Tight monetary policy and low consumer confidence have pushed the euro-zone’s household saving rate up to unusually high levels. While interest rates are set to keep falling and confidence might...

29th July 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Monetary and fiscal policy turning more supportive

Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks, with weak Q2 growth and poor stock market performance triggering rate cuts and talk of...

26th July 2024 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (June)

Core PCE prices increased by 0.18% m/m in June, largely as expected and, although May's increase was revised up slightly to 0.13%, from 0.08%, that still means inflation has been running at a target...

26th July 2024 · 1 min read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather...

25th July 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

Olympics no game changer for French economy

Business surveys released this morning add to evidence that the Olympics will lift activity in France slightly in Q3. However, activity is likely to drop back again in Q4 and we still think annual GDP...

24th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (July 2024)

The recent set of mild inflation data and growing concerns among Fed officials about downside risks to the labour market reinforce our view that the first interest rate cut will come in September. We...

22nd July 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Retail Sales (May 2024)

After a brief rebound in April, the renewed fall in retail sales volumes in May suggests that consumption growth is weakening again. We estimate that sales volumes fell by around 1% annualised in the...

19th July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Retail Sales (June)

Although retail sales were unchanged in June, the strong 0.9% m/m rise in control group sales should ease concerns about the plight of the consumer in the wake of the renewed slump in sentiment...

16th July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul. 2024)

The further decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in July adds to the evidence that consumers are increasingly struggling with high interest rates. Although the link between...

12th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi non-oil activity cooling

Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth is likely to pick up, and markedly so in 2025. But that will be driven by rising oil output. We think that activity in the non-oil economy will slow. Indeed, there are signs...

11th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

What to make of May’s plunge in household spending

The Monthly Household Spending Indicator is often revised several months later so the plunge in spending in May won’t deter the Reserve Bank of Australia from hiking rates next month if inflation...

8th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2024)

Retail sales ticked up in May and we expect them to continue to rise gradually from here.

5th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking

With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August...

5th July 2024 · 4 mins read