UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Public Finances & Retail Sales (Jul. 2026)

July’s public finances figures continued the recent run of bad news on the fiscal position and highlight the limited scope for extra public borrowing. Meanwhile, the weakness in retail sales volumes...

21st August 2026 · 3 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Aug. 2026)

Despite some softness in recent months, we expect a continuation of the AI capex boom and a broadening of investment to drive above-consensus GDP growth, which should rise to 2.6% next year. That...

20th August 2026 · 1 min read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 26)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy has weathered the energy shock well as Japan has been able to secure sufficient crude...

20th August 2026 · 1 min read

China Rapid Response

China Activity & Spending (Jul. 2026)

After regaining some ground at the end of Q2, China's economy lost momentum again last month. The silver lining is that the boost to manufacturing activity from AI capex continued to build, and that...

17th August 2026 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Retail Sales (Jul 2026)

The fall in control group retail sales in July, together with downward revisions to growth in May and June, leave the consumer looking a little less healthy and further reduce the chance of the Fed...

14th August 2026 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

Deflationary pressures loom again

The m/m declines in both consumer and producer prices in July largely reflect the pullback in global oil prices. But falling prices also underscore that domestic deflationary pressures remain...

10th August 2026 · 5 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Manufacturing revival not just a stockbuilding story

After four years of near-continuous contraction, the industrial sector is getting back on its feet. While this revival largely reflects the temporary prop from precautionary stockbuilding after the...

7th August 2026 · 5 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (August)

Euro-zone GDP expanded steadily in Q2 as higher energy prices had little impact on household consumption or business activity. The strength of July’s business and consumer surveys suggests that the...

6th August 2026 · 0 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2026)

The fall in CPI inflation from 2.8% in May to a 14-month low of 2.6% in June suggests there was a lot of disinflation in the system before the start of the Iran war. And the continued weakness in the...

6th August 2026 · 1 min read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2026)

Even though retail sales declined in June, they rose by 0.2% q/q in the second quarter, indicating that higher energy prices didn’t have much of an effect on household consumption. With consumer...

6th August 2026 · 2 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA’s next move will be down, but not until H2 2027

We expect the RBA to leave rates on hold at its August meeting. Although the Bank is likely to continue talking tough on inflation for a while, we don’t think it will go so far as to raise rates again...

4th August 2026 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Household Spending (Q2/June 2026)

With headwinds to private consumption still looming, we doubt that the moderate pickup in household spending last quarter will move the needle for the RBA. Our base case remains that the Bank is done...

4th August 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (August 2026)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Data released over the past month showed that Australia's labour market, housing market, and...

3rd August 2026 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Weekly

Germany: upward revisions but still looking sickly

Revisions to Germany’s GDP data suggest that the economy did a little better than previously thought since 2024. But it has still been the clear “sick man of Europe” in the 2020s and its long term...

31st July 2026 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2026)

Global growth appears to be regaining momentum, led by the US among advanced economies. We expect this trend to continue, supported by strong AI investment despite the risk posed by renewed...

30th July 2026 · 1 min read