US Rapid Response US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul. 2025) The small rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in July and further drop-back in inflation expectations shows that, while overall confidence remains weak, households are less... 18th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (July 2025) Tariff negotiations rumble on, but our base case remains that the tariffs ultimately imposed will not cause a recession – though we expect growth to slow. We forecast GDP growth of 1.6% this year and... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jun. 2025) The solid 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in June and similar-sized gains in core (ex. autos) and control group sales should dispel any fears that overall consumer spending is faltering in response to... 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update US consumer sector divergence echoed in winning retailer types The retail sector was suffering before the rise in tariffs as consumers were hit by higher costs and interest rates. But digging deeper exposes a divergent picture between higher and lower-earning... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Childbirth subsidies a small step toward rebalancing China has just confirmed an annual childcare allowance for parents with children below 3 years old. The sums involved are too small to have a near-term impact on the birth rate or consumption. But the... 8th July 2025 (Updated 28th July 2025) · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE to top the Gulf growth chart another year running The UAE’s non-oil sector has seen a strong run of growth recently and we think that robust activity in tourism and retail sectors as well as solid credit growth means that non-oil GDP growth will... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Could the euro’s strength prompt a July cut? With the euro going from strength to strength and energy prices having dropped back the case could arguably be made for the ECB to cut rates in July and some policymakers have sounded concerned about... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Could the RBA stand pat next Tuesday? Some observers have argued that the ongoing calm in global markets may prompt the RBA to leave rates unchanged at its 8th July meeting, given its preference to move in a cautious manner. However, we... 4th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (May 25) The strong pickup in household spending in May is likely overstating the momentum behind private consumption. As a result, we don’t think it will stand in the way of the RBA loosening policy settings... 4th July 2025 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA to frontload easing as downside risks grow We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bp, to 3.60%, at its meeting ending on 8th July. With growth set to remain below trend and underlying inflation on track to fall further, we see little reason for... 2nd July 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (May 2025) With consumer spending remaining in the doldrums, there is a strong case for the RBA to cut rates faster and further than most are predicting. 2nd July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2025) Today’s money and lending data release supports wider evidence that activity was relatively soft in May. But with consumer confidence improving and real wages rising at a healthy clip, we still think... 30th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Korean consumer boost, political trouble in Thailand While retail sales in Korea remain just over 2% below pre-pandemic levels, there are growing signs the worst is behind us. Consumer sentiment has rebounded sharply following the recent presidential... 27th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: Central banks to loosen further as recoveries falter Australia’s economy is struggling to gain momentum, while the recent rebound in activity in New Zealand isn’t likely to be sustained. As the lull in activity lifts spare capacity, underlying price... 26th June 2025 · 20 mins read
China Economic Outlook China Outlook: Fiscal prop to fade as exports slow Exports would almost certainly have weighed on China’s growth whatever happened this year, but US tariffs – even at their reduced rate – will worsen the drag. Fiscal support has been propping up... 25th June 2025 · 16 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: BoJ will resume tightening cycle later this year The Bank of Japan will stay on the sidelines for a few more months as GDP growth softens and trade tensions cloud the outlook. But with the labour market set to remain very tight, wages rising... 23rd June 2025 · 18 mins read
