UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Feb. 2026) The modest fall in retail sales volumes in February meant that retail activity held onto most of its gains at the start of this year. But the decline in GfK consumer confidence in March due to the... 27th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) This special UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (March 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (March 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The government’s decision to cap gasoline prices means that inflation won’t rise far above the BoJ’s... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jan. 2026) The 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in January was worse than expected but, along with February’s advance estimate for another gain, still paints a more positive picture for household spending than late... 20th March 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly NPC Press Conference: a little domestic rebalancing… Today's press conference for the heads of senior economic and financial ministries made clear that, while the leadership is looking to drive some degree of domestic rebalancing towards consumption... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jan. 2025) The breakdown of January retail sales raises some doubts about whether the weakness was primarily due to the harsh winter weather, with sales of building material & garden equipment unexpectedly doing... 6th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Jan. 26) The tepid rise in consumer spending lessens the urgency for the RBA to hike rates at its upcoming meeting in mid-March. Even so, the Bank has more work to do in order to close the positive output gap... 5th March 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s rebalancing conundrum A major policy push to boost domestic demand would both reflate China’s economy and reduce its large current account surplus, which is a source of tension with other countries. But this looks unlikely... 4th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q4 2025) Although the underlying details were a mixed bag, we suspect the RBA will still be concerned that growth is running above potential in Australia. 4th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money and Lending (Jan. 2026) January’s money and lending data support other evidence that suggests the economy strengthened at the start of the year. The growing risk is that an inflationary shock from the events in the Middle... 2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest US tariffs, Germany’s recovery Following last week’s Supreme Court decision, we think policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic will aim to keep tariff rates close to the levels agreed last year. So our base case is that tariff... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly NPC and Five-Year Plan: What to watch China's leadership will lay out its economic policy agenda for this year, as well as its goals for the 15th Five Year Plan period (2026-30), at the National People's Congress which kicks off on... 27th February 2026 · 7 mins read
