Canada Economics Weekly Soft demand helping to keep inflation in check Data released this week suggest the hit to consumer demand from higher energy prices is helping to offset some of the direct inflationary impact on firms’ costs. This reduces the risk of second-round... 22nd May 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Mar. 2026) The 0.7% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in March was not as large as feared amid mixed signs that the surge in gasoline prices weighed on discretionary spending. Regardless, the advance sales values... 22nd May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Apr. 2026) The drop in retail sales volumes and the public borrowing overshoot in April highlights the deteriorating growth outlook and fragile fiscal backdrop that will face whoever is in 10 Downing Street. 22nd May 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (May 2026) The drop in consumer confidence since the Iran war began, together with the weakness in the business surveys, suggests that the euro-zone economy might contract in Q2. 21st May 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Apr. 2026) Domestic headwinds look to have intensified last month, especially when it comes to construction activity. But with external demand picking up and the electronics sector in an upswing, we still think... 18th May 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Apr 2026) The April retail sales data were a little softer than we expected but still lead us to estimate that real consumption edged up by 0.1% m/m last month. Moreover, the upward revisions to control group... 14th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 7th May 2026 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The government’s decision to cap gasoline prices means that inflation won’t rise far above the BoJ’s... 5th May 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending (Mar./Q1 2026) With household spending holding up well in the face of the oil price shock, the RBA is unlikely to have major qualms about tightening policy further. 5th May 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Mar. 2026) March’s money and lending figures imply households may be willing to absorb some of the blow to their real incomes caused by the leap in energy prices by borrowing more and saving a smaller share of... 1st May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – AI & green tech underpin optimism We spent last week visiting clients in Taipei, Beijing and Shanghai. There were some concerns about events in the Middle East and the wider external environment. But the overall mood was relatively... 30th April 2026 · 8 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Apr. 2026) The RatingDog Services PMI came in stronger than expected, diverging from its official counterpart. The average of the two was unchanged from March, however. And given the weakness in the construction... 30th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Mar. 26) The March activity data only show a small economic hit from the energy shock so far but we still think that the economy will slow noticeably over the next couple of quarters. 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Upside risks to our forecast for household bank deposits to ease Given the fall in households’ real incomes will mean households have less cash to save, we expect the monthly flow into bank deposits to ease in our baseline scenario. But if we are wrong, it is... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will raise rates to 4.60% in Q3 The RBA will raise rates by another 25bp, to 4.35%, at its meeting next week. While the Bank will likely acknowledge that downside risks to activity have risen, it will put more emphasis on the upside... 29th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending & Consumer Expectations Surveys The ECB’s Q1 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) suggests that the negative effects of higher energy prices on economic activity in the euro-zone could be bigger than we have assumed. At the same time, the jump... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
