Europe Economics Update ECB prioritising inflation fight Investors have taken today’s 50bp rate hike by the ECB as dovish, and the peak deposit rate now priced into markets is between 3% and 3.25%. We think the risks are skewed towards rates going higher... 16th March 2023 · 4 mins read
BoE Watch 25bps hike, if banking situation doesn’t escalate The concerns over the health of the global banking system and the easing in domestic inflationary pressures mean it is almost 50:50 between the Monetary Policy Committee pausing/ending its series of... 16th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: no further rate hikes Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged (at 5.75%), and signalled that with inflation falling back more quickly than expected, rates would be left on hold over the coming months. In... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Will financial stability needs supplant inflation goal? The Fed has a very difficult policy decision to make at next week’s FOMC meeting – should it hold interest rates unchanged in the wake of the SVB collapse to shore up market confidence or, with core... 15th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jan.) & Nigeria CPI (Feb.) January’s hard activity figures out of South Africa came in stronger than expected, reducing the chances of a technical recession. But momentum remains extremely weak. Elsewhere, the rise in inflation... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: surprise cut to support struggling economy Vietnam’s central bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates late yesterday as it aims to support the struggling economy which has been hit hard by the downturn in global demand and problems in the... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA won’t hit pause just yet RBA Governor Phil Lowe’s statement that the Board was closer to a pause was interpreted by financial markets as a marginally dovish signal. However, with inflation yet to fall in earnest and the... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will probably end Yield Curve Control in April The Bank of Japan didn’t make any policy changes at Governor Kuroda’s last meeting today but we expect incoming Governor Ueda to abandon Yield Curve Control in April. 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Yield Curve Control set to end in April The Bank of Japan didn’t alter policy settings at today’s meeting. With economic activity set to disappoint the Bank’s overly optimistic forecasts and wage growth slowing again, the case for... 10th March 2023 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Deposit rate to peak at 4%, no rate cuts until H2 2024 We expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 50bp next week and accompany that with new, hawkish guidance. Policymakers will probably be unable to agree numerical guidance, but we suspect that they... 9th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: Rates on hold, further tightening unlikely Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged today (at 2.75%) and with the economy likely to remain weak and inflation set to fall back further over the coming months, we expect rates... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Policy unchanged, but Bank prepared to resume hikes The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% today as expected but, with one eye on the strength of the recent US data and the Fed’s hawkish reaction to that, it sounded less confident... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: rates on hold, but scope for cuts this year The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold as expected today, at 6.75%, and we don’t think policymakers will rule out further rate hikes just yet (today’s statement gave... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
