Africa Economics Weekly Investment-lull in Nigeria, “disaster” no more in SA? The extreme weakness of FDI into Nigeria last year, shown in data published this week, underscores the scale of the economic challenges facing the new government. Without a marked turnaround in... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly External demand weakness has further to run Firms expect the recent weakness in external demand to last another quarter at least, according to the BoJ’s latest Tankan survey. That should drag on business investment as well and cause the economy... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q1 2023) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector remains resilient, the outlook for the manufacturing sector has worsened materially. 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Lenders not immune to commercial property risks Canada’s banks do not face the same immediate risks as those elsewhere. The bank sector is far more concentrated than in the US, limiting the chance that problems at small lenders will trigger a... 30th March 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economic Outlook Banking stress adds to downside risks Acute bank stress will prompt a further tightening in credit conditions, which leaves us even more convinced that the economy will fall into recession this year. With core inflation remaining stickier... 29th March 2023 · 24 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening recovery to shift down a gear Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the... 29th March 2023 · 23 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.0% m/m fall in durable goods orders in February indicates that business equipment investment was weak even before the banking turmoil arose. With business confidence likely to have taken a hit... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 2023) & Machinery Orders (Jan. 2023) The trade deficit narrowed in February as export volumes picked up and import volumes continued to fall. “Core” machinery orders surprised to the upside in January, but that still points to a fall in... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Feb. 2023) & Machinery Orders (Jan. 2023) 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb.) Activity data for the first two months were broadly as expected, showing a jump in consumer spending coupled with modest gains in investment and industrial output. High-frequency data suggest that... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are risks from Germany’s trade links to China Germany is more vulnerable than most advanced economies to a reduction in trade with China both because of the scale of trade and the use of Chinese-made inputs to its large manufacturing sector. 6th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Wage pressures, Mexico’s Tesla plant Labour market data released across the region this week flew under the radar, but the figures provide worrying signs that rapid wage growth in Brazil will continue to keep core inflation high. We take... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Capital Spending (Q4 2022) The increase in capital spending reported in today’s “Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations” is broadly consistent with the preliminary Q4 GDP estimate. That means Q4 GDP growth is likely to... 2nd March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 47.7 in February, from 47.4, leaves it firmly in contractionary territory. That should temper talk of a manufacturing resurgence on the back of... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
