Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing supply shortages starting to ease The shortage of new housing caused by the government’s HomeBuilder grant is showing signs of easing. That means that the housing downturn should start to weigh on homebuilding in earnest and that new... 18th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA has more work to do With inflation remaining stubbornly high and consumption resilient, the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to hike interest rates for a while yet. However, there are some early signs that the... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Nov. 22) The trade balance widened to a five-month high in November even though import prices outpaced export prices last quarter, which suggests that net trade provided a sizeable boost to Q4 GDP growth. 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Nov. 22) 12th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CPI, Retail Sales & Job Vacancies (Nov. 22) While falling job vacancies point to rising unemployment, the resilience in retail sales coupled with stubbornly high inflation will prompt the RBA to press ahead with another 25bp rate hike next... 11th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Inflation & Retail Sales (Nov. 22) 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Household Spending Indicator (Nov.) The slowdown in household spending in November largely reflects base effects from the ending of lockdowns in 2021. Even so, the data suggest that household spending may have started to fall last... 10th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Nov. 22) The slowdown in household spending in November largely reflects base effects from the ending of lockdowns in 2021. Even so, the data suggest that household spending may have started to fall last... 10th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) Australia’s house prices have never fallen so fast in such a short period of time and the risks to our forecast of a 15% peak-to-trough fall are shifting to the downside. 3rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Leading indicators flashing red in New Zealand New Zealand has been the canary in the coalmine for the global economy in recent years so the plunge in the ANZ activity outlook to the second-lowest level on record is cause for concern. Meanwhile... 23rd December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Full impact of higher interest rates hasn’t been felt yet According to RBA estimates, household interest payments jumped from 5.1% of disposable income in Q1 to 6.9% last quarter and we expect them to reach 12.5% by end-2023. With household debt around... 21st December 2022 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly More stringent price cap still not a disaster The proposed price caps for natural gas are more stringent than we had thought because the government intends to regulate prices for the foreseeable future. However, we still think that the impact on... 16th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 22) With employment jumping in November, the labour market is still tightening, The upshot is that the RBA will hike rates more sharply than most anticipate over the coming months 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Nov. 22) 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fixed-rate expiry large shock to household finances The full impact of the RBA’s aggressive tightening cycle on household finances hasn’t been felt yet because one-third of all mortgages have fixed-rates. Around 60% of those will expire next year and... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
