Europe Economics Update Would Le Pen’s new French franc rise or fall? We think that a new French franc would fall sharply against the euro if Marine Le Pen became President and took France out of the single currency. While the likelihood of these events is low, it is... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets’ fears over Le Pen outweigh hopes for Macron Marine Le Pen’s announcement of her radical vision for France, particularly her intentions for an exit from the European Union and the euro, unnerved euro-zone financial markets last week. Her main... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (Dec.) The decline in French industrial production in December marked a weak end to 2016, echoing falls in a number of other euro-zone countries. But Italian industry put in an unexpectedly strong... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Le Pen would face a bumpy and uncertain road to “Frexit” Marine Le Pen’s desire to take France out of the euro zone and the European Union if she is elected President in May faces political and legal hurdles. They are not insurmountable but the process is... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Dec.) December’s drop in German industrial production is unlikely to be a sign of things to come, but it does suggest that the economy entered 2017 on a slightly weaker footing than the surveys have implied... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices rental growth to disappoint in 2017 An increase in the Paris development pipeline for 2017 means that our previous forecast for office rents this year is now unlikely to be met. Instead, we now expect prime rents to grow by just 1.5%... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response France GDP (Q4, 1st est.) & CPI (Jan., Prov.) Provisional data revealed that the French economy performed fairly well in Q4, while inflation picked up in January. But uncertainty surrounding the forthcoming presidential election looks set to... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French election pits liberalism against protectionism Following the nomination yesterday of left-winger Benoît Hamon as the Socialist Party’s presidential candidate, the battle lines on which the election will be fought have become clearer. At this stage... 30th January 2017 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What do Trump’s latest comments mean for Europe? The US President-elect’s perceived attempts to talk the dollar down and threat to impose tariffs on BMW imports to the US have limited implications for the euro-zone’s export prospects. But his... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone back in the spotlight in 2017 The European economies have continued to fare relatively well, with euro-zone growth in particular supported by a weaker currency and low inflation. However, a temporary surge in inflation this year... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is Le Pen’s ECU plan feasible? Marine Le Pen’s suggestion last week that France could leave the euro-zone, devalue and then peg the new currency to the euro to limit exchange rate volatility has been written off as a hopeless... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & French Flash CPI (Dec.) While German inflation surged to a three-year high in December, the French rate barely increased. And with underlying price pressures still very subdued throughout the euro-zone, the ECB need not... 3rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will political risks halt the euro-zone recovery? Rising euroscepticism and a packed election timetable next year mean that there is a significant risk that the euro-zone breaks up. Even in our central scenario in which the currency union holds... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) December’s unchanged euro-zone Composite PMI implies that GDP growth picked up slightly in the fourth quarter. But the weakness of some of the hard data at the start of Q4 suggests that an... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Oct.) October’s French industrial production and German trade data, combined with soft data released earlier in the week, suggest that the euro-zone’s largest economies made a slower start to the fourth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
