Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Although Russian headline inflation came in at a slightly-weaker-than expected 6.5% y/y, that masked a worryingly strong rise in core inflation that’s likely to trigger further monetary tightening. We... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP a bit more hawkish, but poles apart from the CBR A slew of comments from policymakers at Poland’s central bank (the NBP) this week suggest that the probability of the central bank delivering a rate hike before the end of this year has increased... 6th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CNB flags faster pace of monetary tightening The Czech National Bank (CNB) raised its two-week repo rate by 25bp to 0.75% at today’s meeting, and its communications signalled that policymakers will raise rates more quickly than they had... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Bonds & Equities We doubt valuations will support China’s stock market While measures of the valuation of China’s stock market have fallen recently, we don’t expect them to rebound soon. This helps to underpin our fairly downbeat forecasts for the country’s stock indices... 5th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Delta variant and EM tourism troubles The rapid spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus adds to reasons to think that lacklustre economic recoveries lie in store for tourism-dependent economies in Africa, parts of the Middle East... 4th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Is it time to worry about Romania’s current account? The widening of Romania’s current account deficit to a 10-year high partly reflects a rise in foreign firms’ reinvested earnings which is not a concern. But the trade balance has also worsened and the... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) The further jump in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 19.0% y/y in July is unlikely to trigger an interest rate hike but it will delay the start of an easing cycle until the back end of this year... 3rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Asian industry struggles, strong recoveries in EM Europe June’s PMIs show that virus outbreaks have weighed on manufacturing in Southeast Asia while supply bottlenecks and weaker demand created headwinds for industry in China. In contrast, Indian industry... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The PMIs for July suggest that supply chain disruptions weighed on output in Czechia and Poland and continued to put upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the releases suggest that manufacturing... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics CBRT dodging inflation duty, Poland’s tax proposals Turkey’s central bank raised its inflation forecasts this week and Governor Kavcioglu’s comments suggest that policymakers are unlikely to step up to the plate in the fight against inflation... 30th July 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Clouds over Asia, bright spots in EM Europe & Lat Am While the pandemic continues to hold back recoveries in Southeast Asia, the near-term outlook appears brighter in Emerging Europe and Latin America. However, low vaccine coverage in the latter means... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q2 2021) The disappointing 0.6% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q2 suggests that industry may have fared worse than expected as input shortages took a greater toll on output. With virus restrictions easing... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (July) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators showed a surprising fall in regional sentiment in July, but we suspect that this was a blip rather than the start of a trend. We still expect growth to be strong... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russian activity data for June showed that the economy expanded at a solid pace in Q2, with overall GDP probably returning to just shy of its pre-pandemic level. While the re-opening boost will fade... 28th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Activity rebounding as economies re-open The region’s economies have continued to rebound strongly over the past month as virus outbreaks have largely been contained and restrictions have been lifted. Surveys of sentiment in the services... 28th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Europe Commercial Property A primer on European residential property Less favourable demand fundamentals and less scope for yield compression mean that European residential returns are likely to be lower in the coming years than over the previous decade. An analysis of... 27th July 2021 · 17 mins read
