Europe Economics Weekly EC’s optimistic forecasts underestimate key risks In its latest economic forecasts published last week, the European Commission (EC) provided a fairly upbeat outlook for the euro-zone economy, expecting it to sustain its current pace of growth in... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Agreement or not, Greece’s troubles are far from over The latest news on the Greek economy support the IMF’s pessimistic views about the sustainability of Greek debt. But regardless of whether a deal on the third bailout is reached or not, rising... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update IMF’s gloomy take on Greek debt raises default risk (again) The IMF’s latest Greek debt sustainability analysis reveals that the Fund now sees debt rising even more sharply than it had assumed last year. This further reduces the likelihood that it will... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) November’s data brought further signs of public finances improving in the euro-zone’s periphery. But the Greek bail-out deal is at risk of collapse, and the Italian banking sector remains in a parlous... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys and hard data point to Q4 GDP growth pick-up Recent hard data for the euro-zone have generally been encouraging. Despite falling in November, the level of retail sales remains fairly high after a strong rise in October. And while industrial... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will political risks halt the euro-zone recovery? Rising euroscepticism and a packed election timetable next year mean that there is a significant risk that the euro-zone breaks up. Even in our central scenario in which the currency union holds... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) In October, signs of fiscal slippage eased somewhat in the euro zone’s periphery. But the Greek bailout deal remains at risk of collapse and the growing likelihood of a bail-out for Italian banks... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup debt tinkering is no real relief for Greece The Eurogroup made some progress yesterday, confirming limits on Greek loan interest rates and tweaks to maturities. But it remains strongly opposed to the debt forgiveness that Greece needs. And with... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Don’t over-interpret Greece’s glimmers of hope Recent news about Greece, including a planned return to bond issuance in 2017, may suggest that it is finally heading out of the woods. But we have been here before and with the debt burden still huge... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB waiver offers limited relief for Greece The ECB’s decision to reinstate a waiver allowing Greek banks to borrow from it at low interest rates will help to ease pressure on the banking sector. But it is very unlikely to generate a lending... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Greek debt ever be sustainable? The immediate risks surrounding Greece have receded once again, with the likely completion of its first review today set to trigger payment of its next loan tranche early next week. But our analysis... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup’s Greek debt pledges fall a long way short The likely disbursement of the next tranche of Greece’s third bailout may have reduced the risk of a summer flare-up of the country’s debt crisis. But with the creditors’ pledges on debt relief... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt talks won’t provide much relief The compromises reached by Greece and its creditors this week should allow the first bailout review to finally be completed and have prompted a favourable market response. But the first discussions... 11th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s strong start won’t be sustained Q1’s surprisingly strong gain in euro-zone GDP provided a solid start to the year. But we suspect that the figures overstate the economy’s underlying pace of expansion and there is a clear risk of a... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s first bailout review still not a done deal The protracted and difficult negotiations surrounding the first review of Greece’s third bailout underline the challenges that still lie ahead for Greece, its creditors and the euro-zone’s... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece/IMF spat underlines fragility of bailout The public spat between Greece and the IMF underlines the fragility of the country’s latest bailout deal and demonstrates that its long-term future inside the currency union is still far from assured... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read