Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Out of the woods? Five key questions about Greece The Greek crisis has abated and the Government may be able to exit its bailout next August as planned. But the exit will not be “clean” and the official creditors who still own the vast bulk of the... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greece GDP (Q3) Q3’s small rise in Greek GDP reflected a surge in exports, while the domestic economy remained very weak. Financial markets will therefore remain wary of lending to the Government and it seems likely... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s Financial Stability Review This week the ECB released its bi-annual Financial Stability Review in which it cited weak bank profitability, an abrupt repricing of risk premia, and debt sustainability as “medium-level” risks. We... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP Breakdown (Q2) & Greek GDP (Q2) Italy’s economy is improving steadily, but is likely to continue growing more slowly than the euro-zone as a whole. This leaves it vulnerable to losses of confidence, perhaps sparked by concerns about... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone will continue to impress The European economies are still in good shape, with the euro-zone benefitting from reduced political uncertainty and high levels of business and consumer confidence. We think that this strong... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Athens property still not without headwinds Athens recorded some of the highest property total returns in the euro-zone last year. And with the potential for prime rents to edge up and yields to fall, it could be one of the best performing... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek crisis averted for another year The deal at yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting should see Greece receive the next tranche of its bailout soon, allowing it to meet July’s debt repayments with a little time and cash to spare. Debt relief... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt relief set to be pushed back again Amid continued discord between the IMF and Germany, any commitment to Greek debt relief looks set to be delayed for another year. The Eurogroup has proposed new loan extensions to make the debt... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Renewed Greek recession adds to bailout risks Greece’s return to recession in Q1 has highlighted the damage done by stalled bailout negotiations and suggests that the Government’s newly-updated economic forecasts are far too optimistic. This will... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Focus turns to debt relief measures for Greece Today’s agreement means that EU officials can now turn their attention to the question of debt relief for Greece. One way or another, a deal is likely to be done to allow Greece to meet repayments due... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook has brightened despite political risk The euro-zone has continued to perform very well and we now expect growth to be stronger than the consensus forecast this year and next. Inflation has been lower than we had assumed, meaning that... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Greek government revenues fell sharply at the start of the year. While there has been a provisional deal on new reforms, the next bailout payment is still some way off. With uncertainty weighing on... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB tightening is still a distant prospect Last week’s communications from the ECB confirmed our judgement that it is in no hurry to begin the process of policy normalisation despite the health of the economy. Indeed, the Bank still intends to... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greece GDP (Q4) Q4’s sharper-than-anticipated drop in Greek GDP is clearly very bad news. While Prime Minister Tsipras claims that the economy is now poised to recover, the business surveys suggest otherwise. This... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone PMIs consistent with stronger growth Last week’s PMI survey brought some more good news for the euro-zone economy. Accordingly, due to expectations of stronger growth in Q1, we have revised up our GDP forecast for 2017. While the survey... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read