UK Economics Weekly Is the UK’s productivity malaise ending? The recent revival in productivity seems to be driven by weaker growth in hours worked, rather than stronger GDP growth or a widespread AI-related boost. As a result, we think it’s too soon to... 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Further diesel shock on the way? President Trump’s proposed ban on diesel exports has the potential to cause another diesel shock in Europe in the coming weeks – pushing prices up by as much as another 50%. While we suspect any ban... 25th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary's new inflation target, Romania's fiscal mess The Hungarian central bank’s announcement of a new, lower inflation target this week puts the country one step further along the path to euro adoption. But arguably the bigger challenge in achieving... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Election worries will keep pressure on French bonds Global bond markets have taken a big hit in recent months, but French government bonds have been singled out. We think this makes sense given the widening fiscal deficit and the growing risks around... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further rises in property yields are on the way A higher path for interest rates means we now expect euro-zone all-property yields to rise by 15-20bps over the next 6-12 months. The risk of increases appears greatest in Paris, where the property-to... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Investors expecting too many hikes from the ECB The euro-zone economy is likely to continue growing at around its trend rate of 1% over the next year or two. Among the largest countries, Germany, France and Italy will grow at a modest pace while... 24th September 2026 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB likely to sit this tightening cycle out The SNB’s decision to leave interest rates on hold today was in line with economists’ and investors’ expectations. But in contrast to the prevailing view in the market that the Bank will hike rates at... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (September) 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Surge in OAT-Bund spread has further to run The spread between the 10-year French and German government bond yields has reached its widest level in over a decade, and we think it will widen further next year as investors’ concerns about France... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Sep. 2026) September’s flash PMIs suggest the resilience in activity may have faded a touch in Q3, but intensifying inflationary pressures will add to the Bank of England’s unease about the upside risks to... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (September 2026) Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on growth in Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the... 23rd September 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September 2026) September’s big improvement in the euro-zone’s composite PMI supports our view that despite the weakness in the official activity data in July, GDP will increase in Q3. The output price PMIs rose too... 23rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Sep. 26) A negative yield impact outweighed rental growth in August, meaning all-property capital values recorded a year-on-year decline for the first time since late 2024. But we still think the 10-year gilt... 22nd September 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: new inflation target points to long rate pause Hungary’s central bank opted to leave its base rate on hold at 5.50% today, and the decision to lower the inflation target to 2.5% from 2028 argues for a more cautious approach to renewed rate cuts... 22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (September 2026) September’s decline in consumer confidence shows that households’ moods have soured as energy prices have risen. But as long as oil and natural gas prices don’t rise a lot further, we think household... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) Hungary’s central bank (MNB) opted to leave its base rate on hold at 5.50% today and the easing cycle will probably be on pause through the rest of this year as the central bank introduces a new... 22nd September 2026 · 2 mins read
