UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Jan. 2026) The 0.7% m/m rebound in the Halifax measure of house prices in January suggests the housing market started 2026 on a stronger footing than the 0.3% m/m rise on the Nationwide index implied. We think... 6th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (December) The slump in German industrial production in December pours cold water on the hopes of an industrial recovery. And though the recent pick-up in industrial orders suggests the outlook for the start of... 6th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the implications of today’s MPC and ECB meetings A dovish UK MPC meeting prompted big falls in both short-dated Gilt yields and sterling today, whereas there wasn’t so much reaction in the markets to the ECB’s gathering. We think there is scope for... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral stockpiles are a symptom of fracturing The stockpiling of critical minerals is an age-old response to a modern-day problem posed by China’s dominance over the supply of rare earths and other raw materials. That said, “Project Vault” will... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for several more months While the ECB left rates on hold today and put a positive spin on the outlook for the economy, we think its next move is likely be a rate cut, albeit not until much later in the year. 5th February 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Dovish BoE supports our view that rates will be cut to 3.00% While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today, as widely expected, the Bank of England sounded more dovish than we anticipated. This this supports our long-held view that interest rates will be reduced... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The decision by the Czech National Bank to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, was widely expected, but a dovish shift seems likely in the post-meeting communications. The risks to our... 5th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (5th Feb. 2026) While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today (as widely expected), the Bank of England sounded more dovish than we expected, which supports our long-held view that interest rates will be reduced to 3... 5th February 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Jan. 26) The headline CIPS construction PMI leapt to 46.4 in January, a level broadly in line with September 2025 after three particularly weak months at the end of 2025. Nevertheless, that kept the index in... 5th February 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s rebalancing process enters a more difficult phase The latest data out of Turkey have reinforced our view that the rebalancing process is becoming more challenging. At the heart of the problem is excessively strong domestic demand and the tension... 4th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.00%, is likely to be followed by an interest rate cut at the next meeting in March. But the easing cycle is... 4th February 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Higher LTI ratios to boost UK mortgage lending By allowing mortgage lenders to lend more for any given level of borrowers’ income, the relaxation of the cap on high loan-to-income lending last year suggests gross mortgage lending will rise faster... 4th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (January 2026) January’s declines in headline and core inflation left both below the ECB’s forecasts for Q1. This is consistent with our view that inflation will be lower than the central bank expects in 2026, but... 4th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lending conditions improving, but refinancing challenges to persist Survey data point to an improving commercial real estate lending environment in H1 this year. This will support investment activity, though our updated estimates suggest refinancing challenges will... 4th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Analysing public debt sustainability in the euro-zone Among the largest euro-zone countries, public debt looks most worrying in France because it is on an upward trajectory and Italy because it is likely to remain very high. Government debt is also set... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
