UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Jun. 2025) June’s composite PMI is consistent with GDP doing little more than flatlining in Q2, the Bank of England will be reassured that the recent cooling in the labour market finally appears to be weighing... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June 2025) June’s flash PMI survey for the euro-zone was consistent with the economy flat-lining. The recent jump in energy costs has not yet fed through to output prices, but the uncertainty created by the... 23rd June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Iran: conflict scenarios and spillovers The continued Israel-Iran military strikes are likely to have a limited direct impact on Israel’s economy – so long as the conflict remains confined to a matter of weeks. But the risk of escalation is... 20th June 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: EU is choosing Trump over China, retailers doing well When President Trump returned to office, his aggressive treatment of traditional allies raised the possibility that the EU and China would come together in defence of free trade. But it was clear this... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Oil price risk to inflation, infrastructure spending hype With UK inflation still some way above the 2.0% target, it probably wouldn’t require the conflict in the Middle East to cause a leap in the oil price all the way to $130-150 per barrel to prompt the... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Middle-East conflict clouds ECB outlook Our base case remains that the Israel-Iran conflict eases, energy prices drop back and the ECB cuts rates one more time in this cycle. But if energy prices stay around their current levels further... 20th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Israel-Iran conflict scenarios, looking beyond oil prices Oil prices continued to climb as the Israel-Iran conflict escalated, but the bigger picture is that the rise in gas prices has been just as significant, and agricultural prices will be next in line if... 20th June 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (May 2025) Despite the overshoot in May, public borrowing was £2.9bn below the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast in the first two months of the fiscal year. That said, the OBR may still revise up its... 20th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (May 2025) The sharp 2.7% m/m drop back in retail sales volumes in May adds to other evidence that the burst of economic growth in Q1 is over. That said, consumer spending may still outperform other areas of the... 20th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update UK multifamily returns to be supported by easing costs A combination of factors, including surging energy and wage costs and an increased regulatory burden, have pushed multifamily operational costs to over 40% of rent, cutting income returns. But with... 19th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank of England may eventually cut rates below 3.50% The Bank of England sounded a bit more dovish while leaving interest rates at 4.25% today, despite the extra upside risks to inflation from events in the Middle East. This supports our view that the... 19th June 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19th Jun. 2025) The Bank of England sounded a bit more dovish while leaving interest rates at 4.25% today, despite the extra upside risks to inflation from events in the Middle East. This supports our view that the... 19th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (June 2025) The statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave its key interest rates unchanged was hawkish, suggesting that policymakers want to push back against expectations for aggressive... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Europe Commercial Property Outlook: Insulated from tariffs but outlook for property values is weak European commercial property is relatively insulated from the direct impact of US tariffs, but property markets are also not likely to see substantial benefit from more fiscal spending. In all, our... 19th June 2025 · 27 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (June 2025) The SNB decision to cut by just 25bp today means that it has avoided negative rates for the time being. But we think that continued deflation over the coming months will prompt policymakers to cut... 19th June 2025 · 2 mins read
