Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (March) The jump in headline inflation in March was almost entirely due to higher fuel prices and tells us little about what will happen to food or core inflation in the coming months. In our baseline... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Nationwide House Prices (Mar. 2026) The big rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in March suggests that, so far at least, house prices are proving resilient to the leap in mortgage rates since the start of the Iran war. But we... 31st March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2025 Final) The confirmation that real GDP grew by just 0.1% q/q in Q4 of last year is a reminder that the economic backdrop is much weaker now than the last time energy prices surged in 2022. 31st March 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows points to larger outflows from emerging market assets since the start of the Middle East conflict than during the height of the pandemic. EM external positions are... 30th March 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.00% today amid concerns about renewed inflationary and geopolitical risks. Interest rates will remain on hold at the upcoming meetings, but... 30th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Assessing the risks of another Gilt market meltdown Gilts have been under huge pressure since the start of the war in the Middle East and this Update sketches out how much more pressure they might come under if the war were to drag on. 30th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (March 2026) March’s EC survey suggests that the jump in energy prices has had a very limited impact on activity so far, while services firms’ selling price expectations are little changed. 30th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response Lending to UK commercial property (Feb. 26) Net lending secured against commercial property reached £1.2bn in February, marking an improvement on January’s weak outturn, but still substantially weaker than the months preceding that and 25% down... 30th March 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Feb. 2026) The subdued growth rates of the money supply ahead of the Iran war suggest the burst of inflation triggered by higher energy prices is more likely to be short-lived rather than long-lasting. 30th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Markets’ pain intensifies; fiscal and inflation risks up next? The war’s effects on markets may continue to elude an easy solve, but at least investors aren’t too concerned, yet, about fiscal and inflation risks. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Effects of Iran conflict beginning to show up There were clear signs this week that the Iran conflict is causing inflation and inflation expectations to rise in the euro-zone. Next week we expect to learn that headline inflation jumped from 1.9%... 27th March 2026 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Forget the Chancellor’s headroom and watch the markets It is a misconception that the fiscal support to counter the energy shock will be determined by how much headroom Reeves has against her fiscal rules. The true constraint on the Chancellor is the... 27th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New outlook, Turkey FX reserves, Russia’s fiscal boost The early signs suggest that the Iran conflict and surge in energy prices have had only a limited impact on activity across Emerging Europe so far. But balance of payments pressures are building in... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Retail Sales (Feb. 2026) The modest fall in retail sales volumes in February meant that retail activity held onto most of its gains at the start of this year. But the decline in GfK consumer confidence in March due to the... 27th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) This special UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could... 26th March 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: from disinflation tailwind to inflation overshoot The rise in global energy prices will push inflation back above central bank’s targets across CEE economies this year and prevent further interest rates cuts for the foreseeable future. We’ve lowered... 26th March 2026 · 4 mins read
