Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus... 26th September 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Sept. 2024) The SNB’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 1.0% today shows that it prefers a gradual approach to policy loosening, but the accompanying statement indicates clearly that further cuts are on... 26th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Will recession in Germany drag stocks there down? We expect equities in Germany to continue rising even though the economy there appears to be in another ‘technical’ recession. But we expect them to lag those elsewhere over the coming year or so. 25th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by the Czech National Bank to cut its policy rate by a further 25bp today, to 4.25%, was followed by communications which, on balance, felt a bit more dovish than at the last meeting. We... 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Your questions answered We held an online Drop-In session this week to discuss the outlook for the euro-zone. (See a recording here.) This Update addresses some of the questions that we received, including some that we didn... 25th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank won’t cut as far as it expects The Riksbank’s decision to cut by 25bp today to 3.25% was all but guaranteed, but the accompanying statement was surprisingly dovish. Policymakers said the policy rate could be cut faster and further... 25th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (September 2024) 25th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to resume its easing cycle today suggests that the central bank could pause interest rate cuts again very soon. We... 24th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (September 2024) The fall in the German Ifo in September adds to the evidence that the German economy is back in recession. With growth in the rest of the euro-zone also slowing, the likelihood of a rate cut by the... 24th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation rather than growth likely to be key for EZ bonds We think government bond yields in the euro-zone will rebound a bit, particularly in those countries, like France, where public finances are concerning. 23rd September 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Sep. 2024) The fall in September’s composite flash PMI is probably not a sign that the economy is on the cusp of another downturn, but instead is further evidence that real GDP growth has slowed towards a more... 23rd September 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The weaker-than-expected set of Polish activity data for August suggest that GDP growth softened over Q3. That said, we still maintain our forecast for relatively strong growth of 3.0% for this year... 23rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Industrial to outperform as muted recovery gets underway After two disappointing years, commercial property values have stabilised. However, the recovery is set to be weak. We think yield falls in the coming years will be small compared to previous... 23rd September 2024 · 28 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Flash Euro-zone PMIs (Sep. 2024) The big decline in the euro-zone Composite PMI suggests that the economy is slowing sharply, that Germany is in recession and that France’s Olympics boost was just a blip. 23rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The BoE won’t diverge from the Fed for long It makes sense to us that the Bank of England will continue to cut interest rates gradually as it has yet to follow the Fed by shifting from worrying less about inflation and worrying more about weak... 20th September 2024 · 5 mins read
