Europe Chart Pack Q1 should mark the trough in the growth cycle April’s business surveys provided some tentative signs that the euro-zone economy may start to contract at a less rapid pace in Q2. But any improvement will be from a very low base. Indeed, the latest... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norwegian interest rates unlikely to fall much further Today’s further cut in interest rates by the Norges Bank has brought rates close to their likely trough. But with the risk of deflation remaining pretty small and the economy still on track for one of... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norwegian interest rates unlikely to fall much further Today’s further cut in interest rates by the Norges Bank has brought rates close to their likely trough. But with the risk of deflation remaining pretty small and the economy still on track for one of... 6th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB's survey points to slower pace of credit tightening The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggested that constraints on the supply of credit in the US have eased in the second quarter. (See our US Economics Update “Fed’s survey suggests credit... 5th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack The euro-zone rental recession gathers pace (May 09) In some sectors, most notably the office market, commercial property yields stabilised in Q1, or at least rose more slowly. But we doubt the upward yield shift is over. In any event, the rental... 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Is the ECB ready to take the plunge into QE? The ECB is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1% this month, where they should remain for some time. But after last month’s hints that further unconventional policies could be... 30th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Export slump limits recovery prospects (Q2 09) The severe impact on Europe’s exporters of the outright collapse in global demand and tradeflows will cause most economies in the region to contract very sharply in 2009. Indeed, most will now see... 29th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish slump gathers pace in Q1 Initial estimates suggest that the Spanish economy may not have contracted quite as rapidly as some of the other major euro-zone economies in Q1. However, the housing market slump and the rapidly... 29th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) The latest euro-zone money data suggest that the ECB’s liquidity provisions are doing nothing to boost broad money growth in the region. This will increase the pressure on the ECB to announce bold... 29th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Europe inevitably lag behind? Hopes that Europe might weather the global economic storm relatively well have been shattered as the region has followed the US into an extremely severe recession. Sadly, a reliance on exports will... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB: Taylor rule points to much bigger stimulus needed The Financial Times recently reported that, according to internal analysis prepared for the Fed’s last policy meeting, the ‘ideal’ interest rate in the US should be minus 5%. The analysis was based on... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Falls in Spanish rental values are not just a temporary phase Dublin aside, prime commercial property rental values have fallen further in Barcelona and Madrid than in any other major euro-zone city. That seems consistent with the dramatic rise in Spanish... 28th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mounting job losses increase the pain in Spain The Spanish unemployment rate rose at breakneck speed in Q1, suggesting that household spending is set to continue to plunge this year. Accordingly, we still think that the consensus forecast of a 2.9... 24th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property equities support relative optimism on France & Netherlands Real estate equity markets currently appear to be anticipating that commercial property capital values will fare worse in Germany and Italy this year than in France and the Netherlands. Those broad... 24th April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how serious is the threat of a euro-zone default? With the euro-zone set to enter its worst recession in the post-war period, concerns about the prospect of a member state defaulting on its debt have rocketed and even prompted speculation of a euro... 23rd April 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deteriorating fiscal position won't trigger a default The euro-zone 2008 budget deficit figures show that the health of the public finances in parts of the region has deteriorated at an alarming rate. Nonetheless, we think that the state of the public... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
