Nordic & Swiss Economics Update The Baltics remain a weight on Sweden’s shoulders Today’s announcement that the Swedish Riksbank is to borrow €3bn from the ECB confirms that, while the green shoots of recovery may be starting to emerge in parts of the global economy, the Baltic... 10th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Risk appetite to fade as recovery disappoints Today we have revised our key economic forecasts. At the same time, we have updated our projections for currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone prospects improve by less than elsewhere The recent upward revision to our forecasts for the US and UK economies has prompted only a modest increase in our euro-zone forecast given less convincing signs of a recovery so far and a... 8th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone prime office yield convergence: a temporary phase? Since mid-2007, the yield gap for prime office property in five of the euro-zone’s larger office markets has narrowed sharply. To us, this convergence suggests that, to date, investors have not placed... 5th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB does the bare minimum By leaving interest rates on hold and simply revealing the details of previously announced modest covered bond purchases, the ECB did the least that might have been expected today. Accordingly, the... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Trade finance - still costly and hard to get The collapse in euro-zone exports in Q1 – and indeed in Q4 last year – was greater than would be expected from the decline in global demand. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the drying up of trade... 4th June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Growing troubles in the Baltics add to Sweden's problems Concerns about the health of the Swedish banking system have increased further in response to a growing threat of an exchange rate devaluation in the Baltics. While the impact of such a devaluation on... 3rd June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Inventory correction has further to run The breakdown of Q1’s euro-zone GDP figures brought little comfort. The record 2.5% quarterly drop was driven mainly by falls in investment and inventories, while a sharp drop in exports was largely... 3rd June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will 'sticky' wages save the euro-zone from deflation? The perceived rigidity of euro-zone labour markets will certainly not prevent a brief period of negative inflation in the region. What’s more, with wage growth probably set to drop towards zero in the... 2nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why has Swiss commercial property been relatively resilient? To date, capital values in Switzerland have held up better than in most other European markets. This seems consistent with the fact that Swiss property did not become significantly overvalued during... 2nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) April’s data revealed that there was no let-up in the downward trend in both broad money and lending growth in the euro-zone. This further supports our view that the ECB’s injections of short-term... 29th May 2009 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB still hesitant to pull out all the stops Euro-zone interest rates will almost certainly be on hold in June, but the focus has shifted to any developments regarding unconventional policies. The Bank is likely to confirm its intention to start... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch capital values unlikely to fall as sharp as RICS survey suggests The recent RICS Global Commercial Property Survey suggests that, within Europe, the Netherlands will see the sharpest falls in capital values over the next few months. With property yields already at... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro-zone inventory overhang has yet to unwind Our analysis suggests that the inventory rundown underway in the euro-zone manufacturing sector has further to go and, crucially, that the pace of destocking is likely to be even greater in Q2 than in... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Recovery remains a distant prospect (May 09) Recent upturns in business and consumer surveys are not yet robust enough to suggest that recovery is imminent, either in developed or emerging non-euro Europe. At best they suggest a slower rate of... 26th May 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Don’t get too excited about the cycle’s twists and turns The financial crisis triggered a synchronised shock that temporarily interrupted most economic activities. However, at some point households and businesses will start making some of the decisions... 22nd May 2009 · 1 min read
