Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone escapes inflation fears The recent sharp rise in CPI inflation in both the US and the UK has caused concern that interest rate hikes might not be far off. But euro-zone inflation has been far more subdued, challenging the... 25th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Fiscal worries cloud the outlook (Q1 2010) Europe’s economies have continued to benefit from the improvement in the global environment, but there are still major uncertainties over the likely strength and sustainability of the upturn in the... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) January’s small fall in the euro-zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) supports the message from Tuesday’s ZEW survey that the recovery might be losing momentum. 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can euro-zone accession rescue Emerging Europe? As Eastern Europe limps out of recession, enthusiasm for euro accession appears to be building. In a speech yesterday, Hungarian PM Gordon Bajnai said that his country should adopt the euro ‘as soon... 20th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jan.) January’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment confirmed that confidence in the recovery remains fragile. We still see the German economy expanding by a pretty healthy 2.0% this year, but the... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Norway: property outlook bright, but beware of downside risks We think that commercial property returns in Norway will be higher over the next few years than anywhere else in Western Europe. This Update elaborates on our thinking and also highlights some of the... 19th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Divergence in investor and occupier markets to continue We expect the divergence between the investor market and the occupier market, which started to appear in 2009, to continue in 2010. Initial data suggest that, although still low by historical... 18th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro support fading Recent developments support our view that the euro will come under renewed downward pressure in the coming months. With concerns about Greece mounting, economic prospects deteriorating compared to the... 18th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices have further to fall The latest Spanish housing market data suggest that the residential property downturn continued to ease in the latter part of 2009. Nonetheless, we think that house prices still have much further to... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Bal. (Nov.) & Final CPI (Dec.) November’s fall in euro-zone exports could signal that the strong euro is beginning to take its toll on exporters. Nonetheless, in Q4 at least, the external sector is likely to have continued to... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB holds its line There were no surprises from the ECB today as it waits to judge the impact of previously announced plans to phase out its emergency lending to banks. But the Bank’s cautious tone on the economic... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s strong gain in euro-zone industrial production suggested that the sector is still coping fairly well with the euro’s strength. But industrial activity still looks unlikely to boost the... 14th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Is European commercial property fairly valued? We think that the UK, French and Polish markets seem undervalued by about 10% to 20%, while the Belgian and German markets look to be around fair value. The Finnish, Hungarian, Italian, Spanish and... 13th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Core inflation pressures still very subdued December’s rise in euro-zone CPI inflation, from 0.5% to 0.9%, left it at a ten-month high. But the increase was due to a further rise in energy inflation, which should soon begin to moderate... 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal the next Greece? Recent suggestions that Portugal may be “the next Greece” overlook the fact that Portugal’s economic and fiscal position is fundamentally healthier. Still, this month’s budget may need to reveal... 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB may struggle to prevent further franc gains The Swiss National Bank’s assurance that it will intervene to prevent the franc from appreciating too much further is encouraging. But intervention now might not be as successful as in the recent past... 11th January 2010 · 1 min read
