Europe Data Response E-Z Trade Balance (Dec.) & Spanish GDP (Q4) December’s healthy rise in euro-zone exports suggests that exporters are continuing to cope with the strong euro. But the cost has been a sharp squeeze in firms’ margins. This casts doubts on whether... 17th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Feb.) February’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment is more bad news. But it probably reflects the euro-zone’s fiscal problems more than specific concerns about Germany. We still see the economy leading... 16th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek economic woes grow as markets’ fears ease The fact that last week’s European Commission “accord” on Greece appears to have placated the markets temporarily is clearly encouraging for Greece. But with the Greek recession intensifying in Q4 and... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Euro-zone Occupier Market Recovery Yet to Materialise (Feb 10) The euro-zone investment market recovery gained traction in the final quarter of 2009, as investor appetite for commercial property strengthened. However, there is still no evidence that a sustainable... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the recovery over before it’s begun? Last week’s EU “accord” on Greece was long on vague pledges of support, but notably short on detail. For now, the markets have given the EU the benefit of the doubt. But if more meat is not put on the... 15th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Greece’s problems are ours too Greece is the word in the financial markets at the moment. But aside from the potential for weak puns like that (“Greek tragedy”, “acropolis now” etc.), what do recent developments there mean for the... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Europe’s fiscal crisis: how big a threat for commercial property? Although German bund yields, our preferred measure of risk-free rates, have held fairly steady, commercial property investors cannot afford to ignore the sharp rise in Greek, Portuguese, and to a... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) & Industrial Production (Dec.) The news that the euro-zone recovery lost what little momentum it had in Q4 will add to markets’ fears about the region. GDP rose by just 0.1% on the quarter after Q3’s 0.4% gain. Q4’s outturn was... 12th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The pain in Spain remains Q4’s GDP figures confirmed that Spain is one of a dwindling group of economies still in recession. And with its economic imbalances still largely intact, a meaningful recovery remains a distant... 11th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What would a Greek bail-out look like? Speculation that a bail-out of Greece may be imminent has moved the focus on to exactly what form a rescue package may take. The precise details of any bail-out might have important implications for... 9th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is France next in the markets’ sights? As worries about the public finances spread throughout the euro-zone, France is the latest to edge on to the radar screens. Given a relatively low stock of debt and healthy economic outlook, its... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Too soon to call a recovery in euro-zone office occupier demand Although some euro-zone office markets saw a rise in take-up at the end of 2009, we do not think that this spells the end of the occupier market downturn. The fragile state of the economic recovery... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The spotlight turns on Portugal and Spain Last week, the noose around the Greek Government’s neck loosened slightly. But markets are still baying for blood – Portugal and Spain are their new targets. Neither Portugal nor Spain have quite the... 8th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB rate hikes still a very distant prospect The ECB is set to announce further plans to phase out unconventional policy support after its meeting next month. But with the Bank’s call for fiscal consolidation highlighting the downward pressure... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish retail rents: further to fall Spanish retail rents have held up surprisingly well given the severe downturn in the consumer sector. However, with unemployment at nearly 20%, household debt levels high and taxes set to rise this... 4th February 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A sluggish start to the year The limited economic data so far released for January suggest that the new year has got off to a pretty sluggish start. The euro-zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell for the first time in 11... 3rd February 2010 · 1 min read
