Europe Economics Update Why are default concerns not hitting the euro? Increased concerns that one or more peripheral euro-zone countries may default on their debts have so far had remarkably little impact on the value of the euro. But there are reasons why the currency... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Default worries set to deepen Concerns that one or more peripheral euro-zone economies will default on their debts have intensified over recent weeks. With the Portuguese situation and uncertainties over the permanent crisis... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone retail rental value growth outlook still pretty weak The latest macroeconomic data do little to alter our view that any recovery in euro-zone retail rental values this year will be lacklustre. They also seem consistent with our view that near term... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest euro-zone money and credit data confirm that underlying inflationary pressures remain reasonably subdued. While the ECB appears intent on raising interest rates next month, the money data... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland’s problems worsen The recent surge in government bond yields, coupled with ongoing concerns about the banking sector and prospects for economic growth, suggest that Ireland may need to gain a bigger bail-out package... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese bail-out now even more likely The fall of Portugal’s Government makes it even more likely that the country will follow Greece and Ireland in accepting a bail-out. But it may also add to the growing concerns over the prospect of... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) March’s small fall in the euro-zone composite PMI does little to alter the view that the economy made a strong start to 2011 and that the ECB will push ahead with its planned interest rate hike in... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can Portugal avoid another lost decade? Portugal seems very likely to become the third peripheral euro-zone country to need a bail-out. But it also faces much greater challenges if it is to overcome the deep-seated structural problems which... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are office rental values more vulnerable in Madrid than Barcelona? Many of the recent occupier market signals suggest that the outlook for Madrid office markets is marginally better than in Barcelona. Yet, if Spain continues to shed jobs this year as we expect, an... 22nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New European bank stress tests still not stressful enough Details on the methodology and assumptions behind this year’s European bank stress tests provide little hope that the results will significantly ease concerns about the region’s banks. This supports... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB shy away from an April rate hike? Recent events in Japan and the sharp fall in euro-zone equity prices mean that an interest rate hike by the ECB in April is now less certain. For now at least, we continue to think that the Bank will... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB interest rate hike not around the corner Despite growing domestic price pressures, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target at 0.25% at today’s meeting. While the Bank’s tone was a bit more upbeat than expected, the inflation... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Divergent prospects for CEE property markets As in the West, commercial property markets in Emerging Europe are likely to split into three camps over the next two years - the good, the bad and the also-rans. While we remain wary of property... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB interest rate hike not around the corner Despite growing domestic price pressures, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target at 0.25% at today’s meeting. While the Bank’s tone was a bit more upbeat than expected, the inflation... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Danish investment market to continue lagging Scandinavian recovery Given the weaker prospects for economic and rental growth in Denmark relative to Norway and Sweden, as well as the fact that commercial property in Copenhagen looks fairly pricey, the Danish property... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone CPI (Final, Feb.) & Labour Costs (Q4.) February’s final euro-zone CPI inflation figures revealed that the rise in the headline rate was once again down to energy and food. With core inflation still very subdued and global concerns building... 16th March 2011 · 1 min read
