Europe Data Response German ZEW (Apr.) April’s fall in the headline German ZEW index does little to alter our view that the German economy will continue to grow at a pretty robust pace over the coming months. 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB takes the lead, for now Last week’s decision by the ECB to raise interest rates before other major central banks mainly reflected its different attitude and approach to inflation-targeting. But we suspect that there were... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does the ECB rate rise mean for European property? The ECB’s decision to raise interest rates was not a surprise, nor does it materially change the stillloose stance of monetary policy. That said, if nothing else, today’s move will focus investor... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB keeping its options open Having raised interest rates from 1.0% to 1.25% as expected, the ECB kept its options open over the likely size and timing of future interest rate increases. For now, we still think that the Bank will... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s German industrial production figures confirm that the economy’s impressive expansion has continued in the early months of 2011 and that Germany remains the euro-zone’s best performing... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portugal succumbs. Now what? Now that Portugal has succumbed to the inevitable, the key question is whether the latest euro-zone bail-out finally draws a line under the peripheral economies’ problems or marks the start of a new... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will higher rates do to the euro-zone? We doubt that the probable ECB interest rate hike on Thursday marks the start of an aggressive policy tightening. But if interest rates were to rise in line with market expectations, their impact... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Hawkish ECB adding to the periphery's troubles March’s pick-up in euro-zone CPI inflation from 2.4% to 2.6%, combined with signs that pipeline price pressures may be building, has led markets to become increasingly convinced that April’s likely... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation worries will ease in time Last week’s major euro-zone data releases will have done nothing to ease the ECB’s fears about inflation. March’s rise in headline CPI inflation will be particularly worrying, given that it may have... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Portugal yet escape a bail-out? Despite the surge in Portuguese government bond yields, politicians continue to insist that they will not require a bail-out. But these words can quickly be taken over by events. A quick look at... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate hike unlikely to be the first of many The recent batch of reasonably encouraging data, coupled with a raft of hawkish comments from various Governing Council members, suggests that the ECB will go ahead with its plan to raise interest... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banks a heavy weight around Ireland's neck The results of the latest round of Irish bank stress tests will almost undoubtedly make pretty grim reading and we doubt that they will draw a line under the banking crisis. Accordingly, concerns... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s euro-zone inflation figures increased the likelihood that next week’s ECB rate hike will not be a one-off. But the weakness of underlying price pressures in the region suggests that a major... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Mar.) March’s fall in the EC measure of business and consumer sentiment provides some tentative signs that the euro-zone recovery may begin to slow before too long, suggesting that an April rate hike by the... 30th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Public finances data for February revealed a familiar picture, with Spain leading the way with respect to its fiscal tightening plans while Greece continued to lag behind. 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Mar.) The latest German CPI inflation numbers are unlikely to provide the ECB with a great deal of comfort. Accordingly, it remains virtually inevitable that the Bank pushes ahead with its April interest... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
