Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The Czech National Bank cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and we still think that the conditions will be in place for the policy rate to be lowered to its estimated neutral level of 3... 7th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Germany’s early election The collapse of its coalition government, triggered by disagreement over fiscal policy, means Germany will probably have a CDU-led government by mid-2025. This may be more stable and functional than... 7th November 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (7th Nov. 2024) While cutting interest rates from 5.00% to 4.75% today, the Bank of England implied that the Budget means rates will continue to fall only gradually. We agree and due to the Budget (and not the US... 7th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bumper cut today, but smaller cuts to follow Today’s 50bp cut is likely to be the only one in the cycle for the Riksbank, and we expect it to cut by just 25bp at its next two meetings to take the policy rate to its “terminal” level of 2.25% in... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (September 2024) Euro-zone retail sales rose in September rounding off a good quarter for retailers. We suspect that sales will continue to increase, but only slowly as overall consumption growth is likely to remain... 7th November 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to start cutting in early 2025 Alongside its decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, Norges Bank reiterated that it expects to remain on hold in December too. It is likely to start cutting in Q1 next year and we suspect... 7th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (November 2024) The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 50bp today to 2.75%, but the accompanying policy statement suggested that it plans only two more 25bps rate cuts to take it to a “terminal” rate of 2.25%. Given... 7th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Oct. 2024) October’s 0.2% m/m rise in Halifax house prices suggests that the recent momentum in house prices has a bit further to run. And while the recent rises in swap rates suggest mortgage rates will soon... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus The macro and market consequences of a second Trump administration Donald Trump’s second presidency is likely to result in lower US GDP growth, faster US inflation and a slightly higher path for the fed funds rate. The implications for the rest of the world are... 6th November 2024 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we think that interest rate cuts are unlikely to resume until the middle of... 6th November 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Oct. 24) After a strong September the headline CIPS construction PMI dropped back to 54.3 in October, although that still points to an expansion of construction activity. 6th November 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone labour market is loosening Data released last week showed that the euro-zone’s unemployment rate was unchanged at a record low in September. But a broader assessment of the labour market suggests that it is cooling, and the... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey set for a slow disinflation process Inflation figures out of Turkey – including those published for October yesterday – have surprised on the upside and forward-looking indicators suggest that the disinflation process will be slow in... 5th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Where will interest rates trough and why? We expect interest rates to be cut to around the equilibrium of 3% or so in the US, UK and Australia. But rates in the euro-zone and Canada seem likely to fall below their equilibria next year... 4th November 2024 · 4 mins read
