Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The slowdown in euro-zone GDP in the third quarter will do little to ease growing fears about the region’s periphery. The 0.4% quarterly expansion was a touch weaker than the consensus forecast and... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can anything save Ireland from a Greek tragedy? The further rise in Irish bond yields over recent days has intensified speculation that Ireland will soon be forced to follow Greece in turning to international financial support. Is there anything... 11th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece's problems still mounting Reports that Greece’s 2010 budget deficit is likely to have narrowed much less sharply than the Government had previously predicted emphasise that its problems are far from over. Greece will now come... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can exports to Asia sustain the German recovery? With the resilience of German export growth partly reflecting persistently strong demand from Emerging Asia, some have argued that Germany might continue to grow rapidly as demand elsewhere in the... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What are euro-zone real estate equity prices telling us? Recent moves in euro-zone real estate equity prices point to solid near term all-property capital value growth in France, but a period of broad stagnation in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands... 9th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Sep.) September’s German industrial and trade data bode pretty well for the third quarter. But given slowing global demand and the euro’s strength, a sharper slowdown in industrial and external activity... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should Brussels offices command a higher risk premium? Given the huge economic and political uncertainties facing Belgium, the recent widening in the spread between office yields in Brussels and other cities seems entirely rational. Indeed, we suspect... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro defying gravity? The euro’s further rise certainly has not supported our forecast that it might eventually fall to parity against the dollar. The worries about peripheral debt that we had expected to drive the... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland's fiscal squeeze unlikely to calm markets' nerves We doubt that next year’s €6bn fiscal squeeze will be enough to ensure that the Irish Government’s 2011 budget deficit goal will be met. This, combined with rising political uncertainty and surging... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unwilling to join the party After leaving interest rates on hold today, the ECB signalled that it is certainly not ready to follow the Fed into a renewed bout of unconventional policy support. Bolder action might yet be taken... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are Ireland and Portugal about to turn to the EFSF? There are reasons to think that Portugal and Ireland will not follow Greece in seeking financial support in the very near future. But there are still major doubts over their ability to address their... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Expectations for European property rental values remain downbeat The latest RICS global property survey points to some signs of life in European commercial property occupier markets. Unfortunately, however, rising tenant demand does not appear to be offsetting new... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Portuguese Budget will only buy time The Government finally passed its 2011 Budget in parliament yesterday. This may provide some relief after weeks of political tension but the episode has re-awakened market concerns. And while Portugal... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Peripheral strains still building Recent activity indicators confirm that while, the euro-zone recovery is slowing, it has by no means ground to a complete standstill. Nonetheless, news on the periphery remains grim. This, coupled... 3rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update German capital values are likely to rise in the near term One of the most striking aspects of Q3’s RICS global property survey was the marked improvement in surveyors’ expectations for German capital values. We find it hard to take issue with the new, more... 3rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone default mechanism poses near-term risks Proposed arrangements for a permanent crisis resolution mechanism in the euro-zone threaten to have counter-productive effects on member countries’ fiscal consolidation efforts. 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
